全球资产配置每周聚焦：通胀预期升温，全球权益多数回调-20250623

Global Asset Price Review - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates aligns with market expectations, but it raised the forecast for the personal consumption expenditure price index from 2.7% to 3%, significantly above the long-term target of 2% [3][8] - Global equity markets mostly declined, with notable drops in European stocks. Specifically, the Nikkei 225 fell by 1.50%, while the Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.52% [3][8] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with gold dropping by 1.98% and ICE Brent crude oil rising by 0.80% [3][12] Global Fund Flows - There was a significant inflow of funds into developed market equities, with U.S. equity funds receiving $37.1 billion and developed equity markets overall attracting $41.98 billion [3][14] - In terms of sector flows, U.S. equity funds saw inflows into energy, technology, and consumer sectors, while utilities and financials experienced outflows [3][14] - In China, both domestic and foreign funds flowed into the stock market, with domestic inflows of $1.887 billion and foreign inflows of $0.104 billion [3][14] Global Asset Valuation - The equity risk premium (ERP) for A-shares remains significantly higher than that of overseas markets, with the current ERP for the CSI 300 at 77% and the Shanghai Composite at 71% [3][8] - The ERP for major U.S. indices such as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ is considerably lower, at 4% and 6% respectively, indicating a more favorable valuation for A-shares [3][8] Global Economic Data - The Federal Reserve's increase in inflation expectations has raised concerns about re-inflation in the market. The Fed's economic forecast indicates a higher expected inflation rate for 2025-2027 [3][8] - Economic data from the U.S. shows signs of cooling, with both supply and demand indicators weakening, reflecting potential challenges for the economy [3][8]