海外市场周观察：美联储内部政策观点分歧扩大-20250623

Group 1 - The report highlights a divergence in the Federal Reserve's internal policy views, with an expectation of two rate cuts this year, although the number of officials not anticipating a cut has risen to seven [2][8][10] - The upcoming PCE data is crucial, with market expectations for core PCE to rise to 2.6% from the previous 2.5%, which could influence future rate cut timing [2][8][10] Group 2 - In the U.S. economic data, May industrial production decreased by 0.20%, below both the previous and expected values of 0.10% [3][9] - The initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 were 245,000, aligning with expectations and lower than the previous 250,000 [3][9] - New housing starts in May were annualized at 1.256 million units, below the previous 1.392 million and the expected 1.357 million [3][9] Group 3 - Global major asset classes showed mixed performance, with CBOT soybean oil rising by 7.49%, while CBOT corn fell by 3.54% [26][42] - The Korean Composite Stock Price Index had the highest gain at 4.40%, while the Hang Seng Index saw the largest decline at 1.52% [29][35] Group 4 - The report notes that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, with multiple indicators suggesting the economy is close to maximum employment levels [10][17] - The report also indicates that the economic growth rate is estimated to be between 1.5% and 2% [10][17] Group 5 - The report tracks significant economic data updates, including a rebound in the Eurozone economic sentiment index and a decline in the UK consumer confidence index [52][62] - Japan's CPI showed a month-on-month decrease, indicating potential deflationary pressures [71][73]