Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the financial market faces risks of sharp fluctuations due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, and it is recommended to wait and see for precious metals [2]. - The supply risk related to Iran's energy infrastructure and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz still exists. Crude oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is advisable to continue to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions, such as holding short positions for copper, waiting and seeing for aluminum, and considering specific arbitrage strategies for casting aluminum alloy [3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Petrochemicals - Crude Oil: Last week, international oil prices continued to rise. The Brent 08 contract rose 2.85%, and the SC08 contract rose 8.82%. The supply risk persists, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to be optimistic about the allocation value of out - of - the - money call options and the spread between SC and Brent [1]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The conflict has led to increased volatility in international oil prices, and the volatility of fuel - related futures is expected to increase. High - sulfur fuel oil has geopolitical premium support, while the demand for low - sulfur fuel oil is weak [21]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The Middle East conflict is still ongoing, and the international market is strong. The domestic market has some supply pressure, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [23]. - Bitumen: Affected by geopolitical risks, the price of bitumen follows the trend of crude oil. The increase in production is limited, the demand is expected to be boosted, and the inventory is declining. However, the crack spread is under pressure [22]. Metals - Copper: Last Friday, the volatility of LME copper increased. The short position is recommended to be held, and the trading sentiment of geopolitical risks over the weekend needs to be evaluated [3]. - Aluminum: The low - inventory state has led to a large Back structure in Shanghai aluminum. The upward space of the spot price is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities after the narrowing of the monthly spread [4]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The futures price adjusted following Shanghai aluminum. Consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on AD and short on AL if the spread expands [5]. - Alumina: The spot trading is scarce, the price is falling, the industry profit is repaired, and the production capacity is in an oversupply state. The futures price is in a weak and volatile state, and short - selling is the main strategy [6]. - Zinc: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. However, due to the possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, short - term price increases should be vigilant, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Nickel & Stainless Steel: The price of nickel is in a downward trend, and the short position is recommended to be held [9]. - Tin: The price of LME tin rose, and a small number of short positions in the far - month contracts are recommended to be held [10]. - Manganese Ore: The price is expected to decline further, but the willingness of mines to support the price has increased. The silicon - manganese is temporarily bullish in the short term [18]. - Silicon - Iron: It follows the trend of silicon - manganese. The demand is okay, the supply is decreasing, and it is temporarily bullish in the short term [19]. Chemicals - Polypropylene & Plastic: The geopolitical risk has increased the price of oil, which has a cost - side boost. The supply and demand of polyethylene change little, while the supply of polypropylene increases, and the demand is in the off - season [27]. - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is affected by the energy price increase, but the supply and demand are weak, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. The price of caustic soda is under pressure due to the weak downstream demand [28]. - PX & PTA: Affected by the Middle East situation, the cost is affected. The demand is weakening, and there is a risk of decline in the medium term if the geopolitical situation eases [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply is expected to decline due to the Middle East conflict. The long - position holders should pay attention to the change of the situation and consider leaving the market at high prices [30]. - Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip: They follow the raw materials. The short - fiber supply - demand situation is improving, while the bottle - chip inventory is rising, and the repair of the processing margin needs to be treated with caution [31]. Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The price of soybean meal is affected by the price of domestic oils and fats and the weather in the United States. The inventory of soybean meal is increasing, and attention should be paid to the weather in June - August [35]. - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: In the short term, pay attention to the long - short game. In the long term, a long - position strategy at low prices is recommended for vegetable oils [36]. - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The upward momentum of the rapeseed series is weak, and the short - term strategy is neutral [37]. - Soybean No.1: The price is rising. The remaining grain in the market is scarce, and the price is affected by the weather and the U.S. biodiesel policy [38]. - Corn: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, and the futures price may continue to fluctuate [39]. - Pig: The policy aims to stabilize the price, but the supply pressure is large in the medium term, and the price may decline [40]. - Egg: The price may rebound, but it is not a reversal due to the release of production capacity [41]. - Cotton: The international and domestic cotton markets are weak due to insufficient demand. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on significant pullbacks [42]. - Sugar: The U.S. sugar price is in a downward trend, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - Apple: The market demand is decreasing, and the trading focus is on the new - season production estimate. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Wood: The supply is expected to be low, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see or consider buying on significant pullbacks [46]. Others - Container Freight Index (European Line): The market price has increased, but the increase is lower than expected. The spot volume is good, and the 08 contract needs more substantial negative news to decline further [20]. - Urea: The agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. The market is expected to fluctuate and correct in the short term [24]. - Methanol: The supply may be affected by the situation in the Middle East. The short - term price is strong, but there is a risk of decline in the medium term [25]. - Styrene: The cost - side is the main driver, the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is relatively stable [26]. - Glass: The production and sales in Shahe are improving, but the overall inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with caution [32]. - 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber: The supply is increasing, the demand is warming up, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and NR and be bullish on BR [33]. - Soda Ash: The inventory is accumulating, the supply is under high pressure, and the long - term strategy is to be bearish at high prices [34]. Financial Products - Stock Index: The market is in a weak and volatile state, waiting for the clarification of the Israel - Iran situation. It is recommended to allocate dividend assets and pay attention to technology - growth opportunities [47]. - Treasury Bond: The futures price is rising, and the short - term bullish trend is expected to continue [48].
综合晨报-20250623
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-06-23 02:54