五矿期货贵金属日报-20250623

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate policy is the core factor affecting subsequent US Treasury interest payments. Trump is strongly dissatisfied with the Fed's high - interest - rate policy, believing that a rate cut could save the US government up to $1 trillion in fiscal spending. With the resolution of the debt ceiling in the second half of the year, the overall issuance of US Treasuries will increase significantly. High policy rates will lead to a substantial rise in Treasury interest payments and an increase in the US deficit [2]. - Fed Governor Waller's unexpectedly dovish stance indicates that the Fed's high - interest - rate policy based on the US dollar's credit is not sustainable. The Fed is likely to cut policy rates in the second half of the year. Silver prices will perform strongly when the Fed's easing expectations increase, while gold will continue to be weak due to the weakening of geopolitical risk - aversion factors. It is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for the Fed's inflection point in its stance [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - On June 23, 2025, Shanghai gold futures rose 0.24% to 782.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.02% to 8737.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.15% to $3390.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.01% to $36.02 per ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.38%, and the US dollar index was 98.88 [2]. 3.2 Gold Data - COMEX Gold: The closing price of the active contract was $3384.40 per ounce, down 0.06% from the previous day; trading volume increased by 57.91% to 277,300 lots; open interest rose 0.29% to 417,100 lots; inventory decreased by 0.56% to 1169 tons [6]. - LBMA Gold: The closing price was $3368.25 per ounce, down 0.02% [6]. - SHFE Gold: The closing price of the active contract was 778.58 yuan/gram, down 0.34%; trading volume decreased by 19.45% to 303,900 lots; open interest fell 0.77% to 420,600 lots; inventory remained unchanged at 18.17 tons; the amount of funds withdrawn was 1.10%, totaling 52.39 billion yuan [6]. - Au(T + D): The closing price was 776.65 yuan/gram, down 0.10%; trading volume decreased by 5.47% to 37.97 tons; open interest fell 1.92% to 212 tons [6]. 3.3 Silver Data - COMEX Silver: The closing price of the active contract was $35.95 per ounce, down 2.20%; open interest rose 6.69% to 174,300 lots; inventory decreased by 0.05% to 15,411 tons [6]. - LBMA Silver: The closing price was $36.13 per ounce, down 0.50% [6]. - SHFE Silver: The closing price of the active contract was 8664 yuan/kilogram, down 1.76%; trading volume decreased by 10.79% to 1.0843 million lots; open interest fell 2.50% to 889,600 lots; inventory decreased by 1.03% to 1230.23 tons; the amount of funds withdrawn was 4.21%, totaling 20.811 billion yuan [6]. - Ag(T + D): The closing price was 8663 yuan/kilogram, down 1.30%; trading volume increased by 35.47% to 745.95 tons; open interest fell 2.82% to 3187.026 tons [6]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The Fed is expected to cut policy rates in the second half of the year. Silver prices will perform strongly when the Fed's easing expectations increase, and it is recommended to wait and see for now, with the reference operating range for the Shanghai silver main contract being 8522 - 9075 yuan/kilogram. Gold will continue to be weak due to the weakening of geopolitical risk - aversion factors, and the reference operating range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 767 - 801 yuan/gram [3].