高盛：中国必需消费品_专家观点_持续政策对酒类销售、餐饮的影响

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Eastroc Beverage, Kweichow Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Nongfu Spring, Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine, and Wuliangye Yibin [30]. Core Insights - The ongoing impact of China's anti-extravagance regulations is significantly affecting spirits consumption, particularly in the sub-premium segment, with estimated sell-through declines of approximately 30% to 50% in June [7][8]. - The intensity of future policy implementation will be crucial, especially during peak seasons like Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which could lead to further disruptions in retail demand if regulations remain strict [8]. - Brand performance is diverging, with Moutai expected to withstand regulatory pressures better due to its brand power and stable distributor confidence, while Wuliangye and Laojiao are facing more significant challenges [10][16]. Summary by Category Spirits - June sales experienced a short-term demand shock due to heightened scrutiny on civil servants' consumption, with sub-premium spirits being the most affected [7]. - The expert estimates that government and commercial-related banquets account for 30%-40% of sub-premium spirits' demand, while Moutai relies more on gifting, which constitutes over 50% of its demand [7]. - Prepayment for Moutai and Wuliangye is tracking at 56% and 50% of full-year targets, respectively, while Laojiao and Fen Wine are lagging at around 45% and 50% [9]. Brand Performance - Moutai is expected to maintain its growth target due to its strong brand power and stable distributor confidence, with a critical wholesale price level around Rmb1,800 for profitability [10]. - Wuliangye has seen a decline in wholesale prices, returning to levels last seen in 4Q24, leading to hesitance among distributors regarding prepayments [16]. - Laojiao faces greater pressure with a projected 50% decline in sell-through in Hunan Province, indicating a challenging environment for the brand [16]. Beverages - Nongfu Spring's sell-through for Oriental Leaf and bottled water has shown growth of approximately 33% year-on-year, while Tea Pie has seen a decline [16]. - Eastroc is projected to achieve 20%-25% sales growth in 2025, indicating strong retail demand for its products [16].