摩根大通：亚洲_油价上涨的影响

Investment Rating - The report maintains a base case view that oil prices will drift lower, with forecasts of US$66 per barrel for 2025 and US$58 per barrel for 2026 [3][18]. Core Insights - The recent spike in crude oil prices, rising over 15% to approximately US$75 per barrel, is attributed to geopolitical tensions, particularly fears of conflict between Israel and Iran [2]. - The report suggests that the inflationary impact of a sustained US$10 per barrel increase in oil prices will be limited across Asia, with an average CPI impact of 0.2 percentage points [5][12]. - The analysis indicates that the impact on GDP growth from rising oil prices is marginal, estimated at an average drag of 0.1 percentage points [16]. - Major energy importers in Asia, such as Thailand and Korea, are expected to bear the brunt of higher oil prices, with trade balances negatively affected [17][21]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Impact - A sustained increase in oil prices could lead to a surge in prices to US$120-130 per barrel in extreme geopolitical scenarios [3]. - The report highlights that the initial inflationary impact from a US$10 per barrel increase is manageable, with economies like the Philippines and Thailand experiencing more noticeable effects due to efficient pass-through mechanisms [5][6]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The report concludes that the current oil price increase will not significantly disrupt the rate cut cycle in Asia, as inflation is expected to remain within target ranges for most economies [18][20]. - For economies like Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, oil prices in the range of US$75-90 per barrel could complicate monetary policy responses [12][20]. Trade Balance and External Accounts - The report notes that the impact on trade balances varies across the region, with major energy importers facing a higher burden from increased oil prices [16][21]. - The report emphasizes that the current external accounts are stronger compared to previous periods of energy price shocks, which should help mitigate some negative effects [17].