Goldman Sachs·2025-06-23 02:09Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to New China Life Insurance (NCI) with a 12-month price target of HK$20.50 and Rmb28.50, indicating a downside potential of approximately 47.6% and 49.3% respectively [7][9]. Core Insights - Recent sales momentum has shifted towards participating products, which accounted for over half of new premiums in the agency channel during April and May. The company aims for a 30% participating product mix by FY25 [5][6]. - NCI's investment strategy includes maintaining a stable equity allocation of approximately 16% as of FY24, with plans to increase high dividend investments in FY25. The company is also focusing on long-duration bonds to enhance investment income [6][8]. Sales Momentum and NBV Outlook - Participating product sales have increased since April, moving away from traditional products. The company expects a gradual shift towards participating products over the next 2-3 years [5]. - NCI aims to achieve above-industry NBV growth in FY25, despite the lower margin nature of participating products compared to traditional ones [5][6]. Investment Allocation - NCI's new investments are projected to be around Rmb200-300 billion per year, with a new money yield of 2-3% for fixed income investments. The asset allocation strategy is primarily focused on fixed income (70-80%) and equity (20%) [8]. - The current cost of liability is above 3%, but NCI anticipates a decrease as new policies guarantee lower costs in 2024 and 2025 [8].