Morgan Stanley(US:MS)2025-06-23 02:09Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed Core Insights - China's interest in stablecoins is driven by concerns over US legislation that could reinforce dollar dominance, with the PBoC exploring Hong Kong as a testing ground for future payment alternatives [1][2] - The development of RMB stablecoins is seen as a potential building block for cross-border RMB settlement, but significant reforms are needed for true internationalization [10][12] Summary by Sections Stablecoins and RMB Internationalization - The US GENIUS Act's passage marks a pivotal moment for stablecoins, potentially transforming USD-pegged stablecoins into synthetic dollars, which could enhance demand for US Treasuries [2] - Stablecoins are viewed as distribution channels for existing currencies rather than new currencies, extending the US dollar's reach into crypto and emerging markets [3] PBoC's Strategy - The PBoC has shifted from banning cryptocurrencies to advocating for a multi-polar global currency system, emphasizing the need for efficient digital payment alternatives [4] - Digital RMB and stablecoins are proposed as viable options for cross-border transactions, addressing weaknesses in traditional payment systems [4] RMB Stablecoins: Opportunities and Challenges - Current cross-border digital RMB transactions are limited in scale, primarily utilizing Project mBridge, with only five central banks involved [5] - The potential for RMB stablecoins is hindered by domestic usage bans, capital controls, and the dominance of USD-pegged stablecoins [5] Hong Kong's Role - Hong Kong is the first jurisdiction to pass stablecoin legislation, effective August 1, 2025, which mandates 100% high-quality reserves for stablecoins [9] - The legislation aims to promote USD and HKD pegged stablecoins initially, with plans to introduce CNH pegged stablecoins later, leveraging Hong Kong's liquidity pool [9] Long-term Outlook for RMB Internationalization - Despite efforts to enhance cross-border settlement infrastructure, the RMB's share in global reserve currencies has declined from 2.8% in early 2022 to 2.2% by the end of 2024 [11][13] - Restoring global confidence in China's growth potential is crucial for increasing RMB usage, necessitating structural reforms in the economy [12]