高盛：全球观察- The Dog That Didn’t Bark

Global Views: The Dog That Didn't Bark 1. Our projection for the 2025 increase in the effective US tariff rate has stabilized at around 14pp over the past two months, dramatically higher than the 2pp increase in the first Trump administration but significantly below the 20pp we assumed for two hours on April 9. Stabilization in the tariff outlook has helped financial conditions ease and pushed statistical measures of policy uncertainty down from the highs. It has also led us to shave our December 2025 core ...