高盛：全球观察- The Dog That Didn’t Bark

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The effective US tariff rate is projected to increase by approximately 14 percentage points by 2025, which is significantly higher than the 2 percentage point increase during the first Trump administration but lower than the previously assumed 20 percentage point increase [1] - The stabilization of the tariff outlook has contributed to easing financial conditions and a reduction in policy uncertainty, leading to a revised core PCE inflation forecast of 3.4% for December 2025 and an increase in the US growth forecast to 1.25% on a Q4/Q4 basis [1] - The probability of a US recession has been reduced to 30%, although geopolitical risks, particularly regarding potential military action against Iran, could influence this outlook [2][8] Economic Indicators - Real GDP is estimated to grow by 4.1% in Q2 2025 following a contraction of 0.2% in Q1 2025, although labor market indicators suggest a moderate deceleration with job growth slowing and an increase in jobless claims [5] - Core PCE inflation is expected to show modest growth of 0.18% in May, but concerns remain regarding tariff-driven price increases, with each 1 percentage point increase in tariffs estimated to add about 0.1% to core PCE [9] - Long-term inflation expectations appear to be anchored, which may limit second-round inflation effects from tariff increases [10] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to consider a single 25 basis point cut in December 2025, with two additional cuts anticipated in 2026, although risks to this baseline are tilted to the downside due to potential labor market slowdowns [12] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is projected to implement one more cut in September, with risks remaining to the downside due to ongoing economic slowdowns [18] Fiscal Policy and Deficit - The fiscal bill currently in Congress is expected to raise the deficit to unsustainable levels, projected at 6% of GDP overall and 3% excluding interest payments, which could impact foreign direct investment and equity portfolio inflows [16][17] Global Economic Context - The Chinese economy has shown resilience despite a 34.5% year-on-year decline in shipments to the US, with overall nominal export growth at 4.8% year-on-year in May [22] - The US dollar has weakened further, with predictions of significant depreciation against various currencies, driven by high valuations and challenges in attracting capital inflows [26][28]