高盛：随着伊朗冲突升级，能源价格上涨面临上行风险

Investment Rating - The report indicates an increased geopolitical risk premium of $12 per barrel for Brent oil prices, reflecting a higher probability of supply disruptions due to escalating tensions in the Middle East [2][5][3]. Core Insights - The Brent oil price has risen to just under $80 per barrel, with expectations of potential price increases due to supply disruptions, particularly from Iran [3][2]. - The Polymarket prediction market shows a 52% chance that Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, up from just over 30% previously [3][2]. - Two main disruption scenarios are analyzed: a reduction in Iranian oil supply and broader regional disruptions affecting oil production and shipping [9][18]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Scenarios - If Iranian oil supply drops by 1.75 million barrels per day (mb/d), Brent prices could peak around $90 per barrel [10][12]. - A scenario where oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz drop by 50% for one month could see Brent prices reach approximately $110 per barrel [15][20]. - The report anticipates that European natural gas prices (TTF) may rise closer to 74 EUR/MWh ($25/mmBtu), reflecting a higher probability of significant supply disruptions [33][34]. Geopolitical Context - The report emphasizes the importance of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil flows transit, and the potential impact of disruptions on global energy prices [30][19]. - A hypothetical large disruption could push oil prices above $110 per barrel, given a 20% disruption to global energy supplies [30][32]. Natural Gas Market Implications - The TTF price increase since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict suggests an 11% market-implied probability of a sizable LNG supply disruption [34][35]. - A sustained disruption in natural gas supply could lead to European prices exceeding 100 EUR/MWh [37]. US Natural Gas Market - The report notes that the impact of a global LNG supply disruption on US natural gas prices would be limited due to the US being a large net exporter of LNG [39][40].