Soochow Securities·2025-06-23 02:59Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The Middle East situation has led to an increase in gas prices in Europe and the US, while domestic gas prices remain stable [3][8] - The report highlights a supply-demand analysis indicating a slight increase in US gas supply and demand, with significant price fluctuations due to external factors [13][14] - Domestic gas consumption has shown a slight decline, attributed to warmer winter conditions in 2024 [23] Price Tracking - As of June 20, 2025, gas prices have changed as follows: US HH +31.5%, European TTF +9.3%, East Asia JKM +14%, while domestic LNG ex-factory price remains stable [8][9] - The domestic LNG import price averaged 3,698 CNY/ton in May 2025, reflecting a 0.9% increase month-on-month but a 4.7% decrease year-on-year [27] Supply and Demand Analysis - US gas supply increased by 0.4% week-on-week to 1,129 billion cubic feet/day, while total demand rose by 2.3% to 984 billion cubic feet/day [13] - European gas consumption for the first quarter of 2025 was 160 billion cubic meters, up 8.9% year-on-year, but supply decreased by 5.2% week-on-week [14] Pricing Progress - Nationwide, 63% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 CNY/cubic meter [39] - The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in the gas distribution sector [39] Important Events - The US gas import tariff has been reduced from 140% to 25%, enhancing the economic viability of US gas imports [44][46] - The European Parliament has agreed to provide more flexibility regarding gas storage targets, allowing a deviation of 10% from the 90% full storage goal [49] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, such as Xin'ao Energy and China Gas [50][51] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible scheduling capabilities, like Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [51]