甲醇日评：中东局势再升级，甲醇有望继续走强-20250623

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the escalation of the Middle - East situation after the US air - strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and the Iranian parliament's approval to close the Strait of Hormuz, methanol may have further upward momentum. The main contradiction in the recent methanol market is the development of the Middle - East situation. If the geopolitical situation further escalates, the oversupply expectation in the methanol market may turn into a shortage in the short term. However, considering the poor overall profit of the downstream, the acceptance of high - priced methanol is limited. If the profit further deteriorates, it may lead to large - scale maintenance and re - balance the supply and demand. In the short term, affected by the escalation of the geopolitical situation, methanol may rise further. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2400 - 2600 yuan/ton (View score: 1) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Basis - Futures Prices: On June 20, 2025, MA01 closed at 2511 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.16%) from June 19; MA05 closed at 2423 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.41%); MA09 closed at 2529 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.55%) [1]. - Spot Prices: The daily average spot prices in different regions showed different changes. For example, in Taicang, it was 2745 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton (-0.63%); in Shandong, it was 2315 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.22%); in Guangdong, it was 2635 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.19%) [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 234 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Cost and Profit - Cost: Coal prices in some regions increased slightly, such as Ordos Q5500 at 425 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.59%); Datong Q5500 at 477.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.53%); Yulin Q6000 at 485 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.52%). Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. - Profit: Coal - based methanol profit was 469.7 yuan/ton, and natural gas - based methanol profit was - 440 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The profit of Northwest MTO was 572.8 yuan/ton, up 37.6 yuan/ton (7.03%); the profit of East China MTO was - 1437.57 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (-0.88%). Among downstream products, the profit of MTBE was 176.8 yuan/ton, down 21.8 yuan/ton (-10.98%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 218 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (12.10%); the profit of acetic acid and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [1]. 3.3. Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2509 declined. It opened at 2541 yuan/ton, closed at 2529 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2003085 lots and an open interest of 884703, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign: Currently, 11 methanol plants with a total capacity of 17.16 million tons in a Middle - East country are operating at a low load, and ports such as Asaluyeh are operating normally [1].