Guoxin Securities·2025-06-23 03:07Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage sector [4] Core Views - The sentiment in the liquor and restaurant chain markets has improved, with a focus on the performance of beer and beverages during the peak season [11] - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol in China reached 278.7 billion yuan from January to May, showing a year-on-year growth of 6.7%, with May's sales at 48.2 billion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year [2] - The white liquor index rose by 1.1% this week, indicating a marginal recovery in market sentiment [13] - The report suggests three investment themes: leading companies with proven risk resilience, those showing digital transformation benefits, and companies with market share growth potential [13] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a slight decline of 0.02% this week but outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.49 percentage points [19] - The top gainers in the food and beverage sector included Morning Light Biological (13.43%), Huangtai Liquor (11.41%), and Jinzhongzi Liquor (9.78%) [19] 1.1 White Liquor - The white liquor production from January to May totaled 1.597 million kiloliters, down 7.6% year-on-year, with May's production at 291,000 kiloliters, a 13.4% decline [2] - The report highlights the importance of adjusting policy execution methods to support normal consumption demands [2] - Key recommendations include leading brands like Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, as well as companies like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiangsu Yanghe [2][13] 1.2 Consumer Goods - The sentiment in the consumer goods sector has slightly improved, with a focus on the supply-demand dynamics [14] - The beer sector is expected to perform well during the peak season, with recommendations for stocks like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer [14] - The snack sector is experiencing differentiation, with a focus on companies that are innovating in products and channels [15] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks significant events and market movements, including the performance of various companies and their stock prices [19][68] - The report notes that the high-end liquor prices continue to face downward pressure, with Moutai's price at 1,935 yuan per bottle, down 55 yuan from the previous week [12][30] 2.1 Market Review - The food and beverage sector's performance is closely monitored, with specific attention to the fluctuations in stock prices and market sentiment [19][20] 2.4 Important Events - The report lists significant corporate events, including stock pledges and management changes within key companies in the sector [68][69]