Macro Overview - The fiscal data for January to May 2025 shows a continuation of the improvement trend in both total and structural aspects, with strong expenditure support for economic growth [2][3] - The overall expenditure growth rate slightly declined, leading to a small drop in the difference between broad fiscal expenditure and revenue growth, but it remains at a high level [3][4] Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a volatile upward trend in the second half of 2025, supported by a series of policies and low inflation levels [10][13] - The technology sector presents significant investment opportunities due to strong policy support and favorable earnings growth, while consumer sectors like pharmaceuticals and discretionary consumption are also expected to improve [13][10] - The Hong Kong stock market's absolute valuation is relatively low compared to global equity markets, indicating high medium to long-term allocation value [10][13] Fixed Income Strategy - The bond market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation, with opportunities arising from structural adjustments in credit bonds and the ongoing demand for convertible bonds [15][19] - The credit bond supply has shown structural contraction, with a focus on opportunities for spread compression supported by demand [20][19] Textile and Apparel Industry Strategy - The textile and apparel industry is witnessing a recovery in investment sentiment, driven by policies promoting domestic consumption and improvements in consumer spending [23][24] - The second half of 2025 is expected to focus on new consumption opportunities driven by policy, demographic changes, and technological advancements, particularly in sectors like ready-to-drink beverages and sports events [24][25] Food and Beverage Industry Insights - The food and beverage industry has shown slow overall demand recovery, with traditional consumption lagging behind new consumption trends [31][32] - New consumption categories such as snacks and innovative soft drinks are expected to outperform, while traditional sectors may still hold investment value due to stable competitive dynamics [31][32] Public Utilities and Power Sector Strategy - The power sector, particularly thermal power, is expected to benefit from declining coal prices, enhancing profitability despite challenges in electricity demand [34][35] - The water and nuclear power sectors are also projected to maintain growth, supported by favorable financial conditions and long-term demand [34][35]
银河证券每日晨报-20250623
Yin He Zheng Quan·2025-06-23 03:24