防御在前，反攻在后

Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has raised global geopolitical risks, with significant military actions observed since June 13, 2025[2][17] - The potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a broader regional conflict, increasing market volatility[2][17] Group 2: US-China Relations - Despite a temporary easing of tariffs, uncertainties remain in US-China relations, particularly regarding technology and national security issues[1][13] - Trump's fluctuating tariff policies may continue to create instability as he seeks to maintain Republican support ahead of midterm elections[1][13] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market has shifted from a "risk-on" to a "risk-off" phase, with global equity assets reflecting a lack of driving force for recovery since the tariff reversals began on April 7, 2025[3][18] - Following the court's decision on May 28, 2025, the market's positive expectations regarding tariffs have largely been exhausted, indicating a potential shift in asset pricing dynamics[3][18] Group 4: Domestic Economic Conditions - Domestic real estate data shows a weakening trend compared to Q1 2025, while consumer spending is supported by fiscal measures but lacks sustainability without further subsidies[5][22] - Export growth faces challenges with at least a 10% tariff increase, leading to a weak and slowing overall economic outlook[5][22] Group 5: Capital Flows and Market Behavior - Margin financing balances have remained around 1.8 trillion yuan since April 7, 2025, with institutional positions decreasing from 73.6% to 69.9%[6][31] - Market trading behavior indicates a shift towards structural rotation, with declining turnover rates suggesting weakening market sentiment and potential end to industry rotation[6][31]