Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides short - term evaluations of multiple commodities, mostly predicting a short - term oscillatory trend for various commodities, and suggests corresponding trading strategies based on different market conditions [2][4][5]. Commodity - Specific Summaries Iron Ore - Inventory: The total import iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 138.9416 million tons, a decrease of 389,800 tons week - on - week. The daily average port clearance volume was 3.1356 million tons, an increase of 123,100 tons. The number of ships at ports was 93, an increase of 2 [2]. - Outlook: Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally before early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. Steel mills' profitability and molten iron production are rising, and short - term high levels are expected to be maintained. There is a possibility of a small increase in ore inventory, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [2]. Silver - Fed Signal: Fed Governor Waller indicated that the Fed may cut interest rates as early as the July meeting, providing a signal for a possible restart of the easing cycle [2]. - Outlook: The Fed's loosening on interest rate cuts needs close attention. The Middle - East war is fundamentally bearish for silver, but whether gold will drive silver up needs to be observed. The possibility of a differentiated trend between gold and silver should be noted [2]. Treasury Bonds - Interest Rate Changes: Most money market interest rates moved up. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase for 1 - day increased by 0.29 BP to 1.3742%, the 7 - day decreased by 5.0 BP to 1.4941% (a new low since October 2024), and the 14 - day increased by 5.51 BP to 1.7319% (a new high in over a month) [4]. - Outlook: The upward movement of funds is bearish for the bond market. Attention should be paid to whether the risk - aversion sentiment further intensifies. The bond market's main logic is unclear, and a medium - term wide - range oscillation is expected. Whether the oscillation boundaries will be broken needs to be monitored [4]. Live Hogs - Market Data: As of June 20, the average live - hog slaughter weight was 123.78 kg, a decrease of 0.18 kg. The weekly slaughter start - up rate was 27.66%, a decrease of 0.61%. The profit per head for purchasing piglets was - 53.42 yuan, a decrease of 25.16 yuan; the profit per head for self - breeding and self - raising was 61.11 yuan, an increase of 9.4 yuan. The piglet price was 445.71 yuan per head, a decrease of 23.34 yuan [4]. - Outlook: The live - hog price was stable with a slight upward trend over the weekend. Northern leading enterprises reduced supply, but slaughter enterprises were cautious in purchasing. It is recommended to buy the LH2601 contract at low prices, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to their slaughter schedules [4]. Palm Oil - Export Data: According to SGS, the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from June 1 - 20 were 759,881 tons, a 16.66% increase compared to the same period last month [5]. - Outlook: Due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical factors, the oil market is oscillating. There are uncertainties, and market participants are cautious. Domestically, the spot price difference between soybean oil and palm oil is inverted, and the spot basis is weakly declining. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term, and attention should be paid to Middle - East geopolitical risks [5]. Soybeans - Argentine Sales: Argentina's soybean sales accelerated last week as the export tax will be raised from 26% to 33% next month. As of June 11, farmers pre - sold 21.35 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, an increase of 1.84 million tons from the previous week, and sold 40.54 million tons of 2023/24 soybeans, an increase of 80,000 tons [5]. - Outlook: If the US biodiesel policy is implemented, it will impact domestic and global oil consumption. The domestic soybean supply and demand are both weak, and the price is stable. Interval trading is recommended [5]. Coking Coal - Profitability: The average national profit per ton of coke was - 23 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was - 3 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 31 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke was - 68 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke was 49 yuan/ton [6]. - Outlook: The supply continued to shrink slightly as some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have not resumed production, and there were new production stoppages this week. The average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port decreased. Although coke production decreased slightly, some coal resources became more cost - effective after the price decline, and downstream enterprises increased procurement, alleviating the inventory pressure on coal mines. The fourth round of coke price cuts is about to be implemented, and the market sentiment is still cautious. The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Rebar - Production and Inventory Data: As of the week of June 19, rebar production was 2.1218 million tons, an increase of 46,100 tons (2.22%) from the previous week; factory inventory was 1.8232 million tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons (0.31%); social inventory was 3.6875 million tons, a decrease of 64,400 tons (1.72%); apparent demand was 2.1919 million tons, a decrease of 7,800 tons (0.35%) [6][8]. - Outlook: This week, supply was strong while demand was weak, but inventory continued to decline. The macro - level Sino - US easing trade has ended, and the Iran - Israel war has pushed up crude oil prices, making the overall commodity market sentiment positive. More than half of the steel mills are profitable, but the losses of short - process steel mills are increasing. Demand has weakened again, and the pessimistic demand expectation remains due to the drag from the real estate sector. The short - term fundamental contradiction of rebar is limited, and the futures price mainly follows the raw material price. Attention should be paid to the support of raw material spot and futures prices, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8]. Gold - Geopolitical Event: On June 21 (Eastern US time), US President Trump claimed that Iran's key nuclear facilities were "completely destroyed," but Iran stated that the Fordow nuclear facility was not severely damaged. A US senior official admitted that the attack caused serious damage but did not destroy the facility [8]. - Outlook: The consequences of the US action are uncertain, and it may either lead to the end of the Middle - East conflict or an escalation of chaos. The gold price movement is relatively flat, but the financial market is笼罩 in an atmosphere of anxiety. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines or trade with a small position based on technical analysis [8]. Crude Oil - Drilling and Export Data: As of the week of June 20, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 438, the lowest since October 2021, a decrease of 1 from the previous week and 47 from the same period last year. Since Israel's air strike on Iran on June 13, Iran's average daily crude oil exports increased by 44% compared to the average of the past 12 months, reaching 2.33 million barrels per day [9]. - Outlook: Iran's oil production and exports have not been significantly affected so far. Although there are voices in Iran suggesting considering blocking the Strait of Hormuz, it is likely to be a last - resort option. The tense situation has not eased, and there are still uncertainties. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or trade in the short term [9]. Rubber - Raw Material and Capacity Data: The price of Thai raw rubber latex was 57.75 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump rubber price was 48.05 Thai baht/kg. In Yunnan, the price of latex for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,300 yuan/ton, and for concentrated latex was 13,400 yuan/ton; in Hainan, the corresponding prices were 12,400 yuan/ton and 14,200 yuan/ton. As of June 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.54%, a 1.56% increase from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.39%, a 2.69% increase. The average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises were 47.42 days, a 1.14 - day increase; for full - steel tire sample enterprises, it was 41.89 days, a 0.15 - day increase [10]. - Outlook: The main rubber - producing areas in Southeast Asia and China are not in the seasonally rainy period, and although rubber tapping is affected, it is in line with expectations. There have been no unexpected changes in supply. After the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the overall demand has not changed much. Domestic downstream industries have high finished - product inventories and lack the motivation to continuously purchase raw materials. The geopolitical situation has also affected the crude oil price and, in turn, the rubber futures price. An oscillatory trading strategy is recommended [10]. PTA - Price and Supply Data: PXCFR was reported at $888/ton, and the PX - N spread was $255/ton. The price of East China PTA was 5,170 yuan/ton, and the cash - flow cost was 4,960 yuan/ton. The operating rate of China's PX industry decreased by 0.2% to 85.6%, and the Asian PX industry operating rate decreased by 1.3% to 74.3%. Some domestic PX plants had load fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the implementation of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance in July [11]. - Outlook: The PXN spread has support. The shutdown of some PTA plants and the reduction of operating rates have offset the impact of the restart of some plants, and the supply - demand situation of PTA has improved marginally. Due to the uncertainty of the crude oil price, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or trade in the short term [11][12]. Methanol - Market and Inventory Data: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. China's methanol port sample inventory was 586,400 tons, a decrease of 65,800 tons from the previous week; the sample production enterprise inventory was 367,400 tons, a decrease of 11,800 tons; the sample enterprise order backlog was 273,800 tons, a decrease of 28,300 tons. The methanol operating rate was 88.65%, an increase of 0.76% from the previous week; the downstream total capacity utilization rate was 75.73%, a decrease of 0.41% [12]. - Outlook: The coal price is expected to be stable, and the domestic methanol operating rate is expected to remain high. Downstream demand is relatively stable, and imported methanol arrivals are expected to increase this week, which may lead to port inventory accumulation. The inland methanol market is consolidating, and the port market basis is stable, but the buying sentiment is weak. The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at the 2,610 - yuan level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or short - sell on rebounds [12]. Soda Ash - Price and Production Data: The national mainstream price of heavy - grade soda ash was 1,338 yuan/ton, showing a downward oscillatory trend. Weekly soda ash production was 753,700 tons, an increase of 1.84% from the previous week; the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.726 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. The float glass start - up rate was 75.34%, a decrease of 0.08%; the national average price of float glass was 1,181 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day; the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.29% [13]. - Outlook: The float glass start - up rate is relatively stable, and the inventory has increased slightly. The East China market is generally stable with minor fluctuations, and some enterprises in Jiangsu have loosened prices. The mid - and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and procurement is mainly for immediate needs. The domestic soda ash market is performing averagely, with weak trading sentiment. Downstream demand is lukewarm, and the purchasing sentiment is cautious, with most purchases at low prices for immediate needs. The soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at the 1,185 - yuan level. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or short - sell on rebounds [13]. PVC - Price and Supply Data: The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC was 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The PVC capacity utilization rate was 78.62%, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous week. There are new production plans for Shaanxi Jintai Phase II and Fujian Wanhua Phase II, increasing the supply pressure. PVC social inventory was 569,300 tons, a decrease of 0.74%. The average profit per ton of national calcium - carbide - based PVC production enterprises was - 494 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan; the average profit per ton of ethylene - based PVC production enterprises was - 640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan [14]. - Outlook: The scale of PVC plant maintenance has increased, but the supply remains high. The profit is poor, and there are still expectations of new production capacity coming online. Demand is stable, and exports have entered the off - season. The increase in the crude oil price has put pressure on the PVC spot market, and the price increase is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at the 4,890 - yuan level for the 09 contract. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or go long in the short term [14].
宁证期货今日早评-20250623
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-06-23 03:31