Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market is affected by overseas geopolitical crises and domestic policies, with suggestions to go long on certain index futures contracts related to the economy and "new - quality productivity" [4]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [7]. - The precious metals market is influenced by the Fed's interest - rate policy and US fiscal conditions, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to have different trends [8]. - For various metals in the non - ferrous metals industry, the prices are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and geopolitical situations, with different trends and trading strategies [12][13][16]. - In the black building materials industry, steel and iron ore prices are affected by real - estate demand, production, and supply - demand relationships, and the market is expected to be weak [25][27]. - In the energy and chemical industry, prices of various products are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43][44][45]. - In the agricultural products industry, prices of livestock, grains, and oils are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal changes, and policies, and different trading strategies are suggested [57][58][61]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Stock Index - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07%, the ChiNext Index down 0.83%, etc., and the total trading volume of the two markets decreased by 182.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2]. - Overseas, the Middle - East geopolitical crisis suppresses global risk appetite, while Sino - US trade tensions ease. Domestically, May economic data is generally stable, and policies are introduced to support the capital market. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures and IC or IM futures [4]. - The trading strategy for index futures is to buy IF long positions on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [5]. Treasury Bonds - On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. The 6 - month LPR remained stable, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short - term, with a downward trend in interest rates in the long - term, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [7]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold rose 0.24% to 782.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.02% to 8737 yuan/kilogram. The Fed's interest - rate policy affects US debt interest payments, and the price of gold and silver is expected to have different trends [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, copper prices fluctuated. The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased, and the LME cash/3M premium widened. The price may rise in the short - term but is limited by consumption, and the running range of the Shanghai copper main contract is 77,500 - 79,600 yuan/ton [12]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices rose. Domestic and LME inventories decreased, and the cash/3M turned to a premium. The price may continue to rise but is limited by the price increase and the off - season effect, with the running range of the domestic main contract being 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [13]. Zinc - After the release of import and export data, zinc ore imports in May were good, but zinc ingot imports were lower than expected. The zinc industry is in the process of converting excess zinc ore into zinc ingots, and the zinc price has a large downward risk, but the starting point of the market is uncertain [14]. Lead - After the release of import and export data, the export of lead - acid batteries declined, and downstream consumption remained weak. The profit of primary lead smelting increased, and the price is expected to remain weak [15]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices were weak. The supply of refined nickel was high, and the demand was weak. The cost support weakened, and it is advisable to go short on rallies, with the running range of the Shanghai nickel main contract being 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton [16]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was tight, and the supply of refined tin was further tightened. The demand was in the off - season, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [17]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium was weak at the bottom this week. The supply clearance was slow, and the downstream was in the off - season. The lithium price may face selling pressure, and the running range of the main contract is 58,000 - 59,600 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina - On June 20, the alumina index fell. The spot price in some regions decreased, and the import window was closed. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to go short on rallies, with the running range of the main contract being 2750 - 3100 yuan/ton [19]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract fell. The spot price in some markets decreased, and the inventory increased. The market is affected by high inventory and weak demand, and the key lies in whether downstream demand can drive inventory digestion [20][22]. Black Building Materials Steel - On Friday, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The real - estate demand is weak, and the market has entered the off - season. The terminal demand is weakening, and attention should be paid to policy, demand, and cost factors [24][25]. Iron Ore - On Friday, the iron - ore main contract rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand for molten iron is strong. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, waiting for changes in the supply - demand relationship [26][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The spot price is stable, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be weak in the medium - term. - Soda Ash: The spot price is stable, and the inventory is increasing. The demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weak on the disk [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rebounded this week but are still in a downward trend. The fundamental situation is not good, and it is not advisable to buy on the left - hand side [29][30][32]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial - silicon futures price fell on June 20. The price is in a downward trend, and the supply is in excess while the demand is insufficient. The price may continue to fall, and it is not advisable to buy on the left - hand side [34][35][36]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - NR and RU are oscillating and weakening. The bulls expect price increases due to potential production cuts, while the bears are concerned about weak demand. The tire - opening rate is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to have a neutral view and short - term operations [38][39][41]. Crude Oil - As of Friday, WTI crude oil rose, Brent crude oil fell, and INE crude oil rose. The geopolitical risk has been released, and the oil price has deviated from the fundamentals. It is in the short - selling range [43]. Methanol - On June 20, the methanol 09 contract fell. The port inventory is relatively low, and the price has risen due to geopolitical conflicts. It is advisable to wait and see on the single - side, and pay attention to the downstream feedback [44]. Urea - On June 20, the urea 09 contract rose. The international price has risen due to geopolitical conflicts, and the domestic price has bottomed out. It is advisable to wait and see [45]. Styrene - The spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell. The cost supply is abundant, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile after the Middle - East conflict stabilizes [46][47]. PVC - The PVC09 contract rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and weak in the long - term, but beware of rebounds [48]. Ethylene Glycol - The EG09 contract fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to decline. The inventory is decreasing. It is advisable to short on rallies, but beware of geopolitical risks [49]. PTA - The PTA09 contract fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is under pressure. The inventory is accumulating. It is advisable to go long on dips following PX, but beware of oil - price drops [50][51]. Para - Xylene - The PX09 contract fell. The supply is at a high level, and it is expected to destock in the third quarter. It is advisable to go long on dips following crude oil, but beware of oil - price drops [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - The conflict between Israel and Iran affects PE imports from Iran. The supply pressure may ease, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - The profit of Shandong refineries has declined, and the supply of propylene is restricted. The supply is expected to increase in June, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be bearish [54][55]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The pig price rose over the weekend. The supply of upstream breeding is limited, and the sentiment of second - round fattening is good. It is advisable to go long on dips for near - term contracts and short on rallies for far - term contracts [57]. Eggs - The egg price was stable over the weekend. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to short on rallies on the disk [58]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The US soybean price fell slightly on Friday, and the domestic soybean - meal futures were strong. The supply and demand of soybean meal are in a multi - empty situation. It is advisable to go long on dips at the low - cost range [59][60][61]. Oils and Fats - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is good, and the production data is mixed. The EPA policy is beneficial, but the oils and fats market may face inventory pressure in the peak season. The price is expected to be oscillating and strong [62][63][64]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded on Friday. The import volume of syrup and premix decreased. The import profit window has opened, and the sugar price is expected to decline [65][66]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was volatile on Friday. The downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the supply is gradually destocking. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term [67].
五矿期货文字早评-20250623
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-06-23 03:45