中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌互现，黑色系多数收涨-20250623

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June, with a more cautious outlook on下半年 rate cuts. US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance [6]. - Domestic macro: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, increasing expectations for下半年 policies. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, manufacturing and service industries grew, and industrial and consumer data showed positive trends [6]. - Asset viewpoint: The domestic economy maintains a weak - stable pattern, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Essentials - Overseas Macro - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% in June. US economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and the manufacturing index were weak. Economic recovery is limited by geopolitical and trade uncertainties, and high oil prices may lead to a hawkish Fed [6]. - Domestic Macro - The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced financial support policies. 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local areas, and the remaining will be distributed gradually. In May, fixed - asset investment, industrial and service sectors, and consumer spending all showed positive growth [6]. - Asset Viewpoint - Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, and the long - term weak - dollar trend continues. Strategic allocation to resources like gold is recommended [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights - Financial Sector - Stock Index Futures: Funds are releasing congestion, with risks of end - of - session stock stampedes and deteriorating dollar liquidity, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - Stock Index Options: Selling options requires waiting for a downward inflection point in volatility, with deteriorating option liquidity, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: Bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, with risks of unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to continue short - term adjustments due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations, with attention to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy, and are expected to fluctuate [8]. - Shipping - The container shipping market to Europe is expected to focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with attention to tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies, and is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Black Building Materials - Steel Products: Inventory is being depleted, with limited fundamental contradictions. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production, and they are expected to fluctuate [8]. - Iron Ore: Hot metal production has increased, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Coke: A fourth round of price cuts is imminent, and prices are weakly stable. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Coking Coal: Transaction volume has improved, and the price decline has slowed. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The dollar index is weak, and copper prices are high. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's dovish stance, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Aluminum Oxide: The number of warehouse receipts is low, and the alumina futures price has risen. Attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme sector trends, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Aluminum: Low inventory and high premiums have led to a rise in aluminum prices. Attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand, and it is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Zinc: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply, and it is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - Nickel: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release, and it is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - Energy and Chemical Industry - Crude Oil: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will continue to have high volatility. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [11]. - Methanol: The Israel - Iran conflict has not subsided, and methanol is expected to be strong with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [11]. - Urea: Geopolitical disturbances and the start of domestic and foreign demand have led to a strong futures price. Attention should be paid to market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [11]. - Agriculture - Oils and Fats: Yesterday's performance was differentiated, with soybean oil being strong. Attention should be paid to South American soybean harvests, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, and it is expected to rise with fluctuations [11]. - Protein Meal: Oil mills' inventory accumulation may put pressure on the basis, and the futures - cash market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to US soybean planting area and weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and trade disputes [11]. - Corn/Starch: The number of incoming vehicles is low, and the futures and cash prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to insufficient demand, macro factors, and weather [11].