鸡蛋：时间提前，空间有限

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The future trend of the disk's peak - season contracts depends on the timing and space of seasonal price increases. Considering the postponed peak production capacity this year, the ineffective elimination of excess capacity, and the early bottoming - out and stabilization of the spot market leading to a slowdown in culling, the upward space of the near - month contracts with a large premium may be restricted. The rebound cycle has come earlier, but the imagination space is also limited. It is recommended to mainly adopt a short - term wait - and - see or range - trading approach, and pay attention to the upper pressure on the disk in the medium term, waiting for a rebound to short [2][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Rebounds Early - Since late April, egg prices have been continuously weakening, and after the May Day holiday, the price increase failed, leading to continuous losses in the breeding industry. As the Meiyu season deepened and losses increased, the supporting force at the bottom gradually accumulated [4]. - The short - term rebound in egg prices comes from three aspects: more culling (the culling chicken price has continuously declined, and the chicken age has dropped to 509 days, about 30 days lower than the peak, equivalent to one - month early culling); more molting in the industrial end, which intercepts part of the supply, and an increase in downstream cold - storage egg storage, traders' low - price replenishment, and a decrease in circulation inventory, with marginal improvement in demand; in late June, the newly opened production mainly comes from chicks replenished around the Spring Festival (late January to early February). Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the proportion of small eggs representing new supply has decreased by 0.1% to 17.05%, reducing the marginal pressure on small - egg supply and supporting the overall market [4]. - By late June, the mainstream red - egg producing area quoted 2.6 yuan/jin, rebounding 0.3 yuan or 13% from the mid - month low, and the pink - egg price in Guantao increased by 0.06 yuan to 2.62 yuan/jin. The culling chicken price stopped falling and stabilized, with a slight local rebound, indicating that the culling progress has eased [4]. 3.2 Supply Pressure Significantly Postponed This Year - Due to continuous low costs and high profits, the replenishment scale has been significantly high since the second half of last year. Although there were breeding losses in the first half of this year, high replenishment did not end, resulting in a significantly large current laying - hen inventory in production, and the trend is still increasing. The supply scale is comparable to the oversupplied years of 2017 and 2020, but the supply rhythm is different [9]. - In 2017 and 2020, the loss periods were mainly concentrated from around the Spring Festival to the first half of the year, and the production capacity elimination (including reduced replenishment and increased culling) also mainly occurred during this period. In contrast, losses this year were concentrated after the May Day holiday, and production capacity clearance in the first half of the year was not obvious. The theoretical inventory peak deduced from the replenishment end is in October this year, and the supply scale will increase in the next few months, which is fundamentally different from the situation in 2017 and 2020 when production capacity elimination was basically completed before the Meiyu season [9]. - On the culling end, the market sentiment has changed from "optimistic" to "cautious", but it is still far from "panic", meaning there is still room for future production capacity elimination. Although the culling chicken age has been advanced by one month since May, it is still insufficient compared with the large supply scale and cannot fundamentally reverse the situation of increasing supply. In 2017 and 2020, the chicken age once dropped below 450 days, and the culling chicken price was significantly at a discount to the white - chicken price, while currently, the culling chicken price is still at a premium to the white - chicken price, and the current level of culling is not enough [10][14]. 3.3 The Spot Bottoming - out Time Is the Key to the Near - Month Contract Trend - The two key points determining the trend of the disk's peak - season contracts are the timing of the spot's seasonal price increase and the potential space. The timing of the spot's seasonal bottoming - out determines the trend of the two peak - season near - month contracts 08 and 09. If the spot bottoms out early and the price increase is sharp, the 08 and 09 contracts have enough time to benefit from the price increase and can still be fully utilized by long - position holders with a large premium over the spot. Conversely, if the spot bottoms out late and the imagination space is limited, the increase of the 08 and 09 contracts will be restricted, and they are prone to have their premiums squeezed before approaching delivery [18]. - In terms of space, if the price bottoms out early, production capacity elimination will stagnate, which will limit the imagination space of the peak - season and forward contracts. Conversely, if production capacity elimination can continue deeply, it will open up the imagination space of the peak - season contracts. Considering the current early rebound of the spot and the limited future imagination space, the future market trend is more likely to develop towards the first scenario [18].