西南期货早间评论-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For most products, the report analyzes the market conditions from aspects such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, and then gives corresponding investment suggestions, including bullish, bearish, and neutral views [5][7][10] - Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic conditions, geopolitical conflicts, and seasonal factors, and different products show different trends and investment opportunities [5][7][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income Products 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 161.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on June 20, with a net withdrawal of 4.13 billion yuan on that day. The June LPR quote remained stable [5] - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to remain cautious as there is uncertainty in the Sino - US trade agreement. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market [5][6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. From January to May, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 4.2% year - on - year. The stamp duty revenue increased by 18.8% year - on - year, and the securities trading stamp duty revenue increased by 52.4% year - on - year. In May, the total social power consumption increased by 4.4% year - on - year [7] - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong, and the market lacks confidence in corporate profits. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and considers going long on stock index futures [8][9] 3.2 Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold and silver futures prices fell. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold [10] - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is considered to go long on gold futures [10][11] 3.3 Base Metals and Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper showed a weak trend. Geopolitical risks and the rebound of the US dollar index put pressure on copper prices. However, the increase in US refined copper inventory and the uncertainty of copper tariffs provide a basis for copper price increases [51] - It is recommended to focus on going long opportunities for the Shanghai copper main contract [52] 3.3.2 Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the domestic processing fee is low, and the smelter's raw material inventory is further tightened. The export of refined tin from Indonesia has returned to normal, and the downstream production schedule data is good, and both domestic and overseas inventories are showing a de - stocking trend [53] - It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate [53] 3.3.3 Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The cost support has weakened, and the downstream nickel - iron plants are suffering greater losses. The stainless - steel consumption is pessimistic, which may drag down the ore price. On the other hand, the MHP price has strengthened, and the cost of nickel sulfate has certain support, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is not high [54] - It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate [54] 3.3.4 Iron Ore - The previous trading day, the iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The iron - water daily output has declined, and the support for the iron ore price from strong demand has weakened. The supply has increased, and the port inventory is relatively stable. The iron ore price valuation is the highest among black - series products [15] - Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities, stop profit in time when the price rebounds, and stop loss if it falls below the previous low [15] 3.3.5 Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The real - estate industry is in a downward trend, and the demand for rebar is declining, and there is over - capacity, which suppresses the price. The market has entered the off - season, and the price support from peak - season demand has weakened [12] - The steel price valuation is at a low level, and the downward space may not be large. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [12][13] 3.3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose slightly. The coking coal and coke market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The supply of coking coal has decreased, and the market trading atmosphere is sluggish. The steel - mill's iron - water output has declined, and the coking enterprises' production has decreased [17] - The short - term decline of coking coal and coke futures is expected to stop, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [17][18] 3.3.7 Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose. The manganese - ore shipment volume from Gabon has increased significantly, and the port manganese - ore inventory has increased slightly. The iron - alloy production has increased at a low level, and the demand is weak, and the supply is still high [20] - After entering the off - season, the short - term demand for iron alloys has peaked, and the price is under pressure. If the spot loss intensifies significantly, investors can consider low - level out - of - the - money call options [20][21] 3.4 Energy Products 3.4.1 Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose first and then fell. Geopolitical risks continue to ferment. The fund manager increased the net long position of US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs has decreased for eight consecutive weeks. The US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities has intensified the Middle East conflict [22][23] - Oil prices are expected to rise in the short term. It is recommended to focus on going long opportunities for the crude oil main contract [23][24] 3.4.2 Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and rose first and then fell, showing a strong trend. The conflict between Israel and Iran has increased geopolitical risks, which has pushed up crude oil prices and driven up fuel - oil prices. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, it will be slightly negative for fuel - oil prices [25][26] - It is recommended to focus on going long opportunities for the fuel - oil main contract [27] 3.5 Chemical Products 3.5.1 Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic - rubber main contract fell. The supply pressure has been slightly relieved, and the demand improvement is limited. The cost is expected to rebound, which will drive the market to stabilize and rebound. The raw - material price is volatile, the production capacity utilization rate has declined, the tire - enterprise inventory is high, and the export order is restricted by tariffs [28] - Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29] 3.5.2 Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural - rubber main contract fell. The market is worried about the future, and the domestic inventory has increased against the season, which has led to a sharp decline in the market. The supply is affected by rain, and the demand is expected to decline slightly. The social inventory is at a relatively high level [30] - Wait for the market to stabilize and then focus on going long opportunities [32] 3.5.3 PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose slightly. The supply - demand drive of PVC itself is not strong, and it is in the traditional off - season from June to July. The production is expected to return after the maintenance weakens, and the rebound space is limited. The supply capacity utilization rate has increased, the demand is weak, and the cost has decreased [33] - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate at a low level [35] 3.5.4 Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. Affected by the phased release of agricultural demand and the tightening of overseas supply, urea has stabilized and rebounded. The domestic urea daily output is expected to remain at around 200,000 tons. The agricultural demand is in a short - term gap, and the industrial demand is weakening [36] - Be bullish on urea in the short term [37] 3.5.5 PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PXN spread has been adjusted, and the PX - MX spread has increased. The PX load has decreased slightly, and there have been many changes in overseas devices. The import volume has increased. The cost is affected by the conflict between Israel and Iran, and the international crude - oil price has continued to rise [38] - In the short term, the PX price is dominated by the cost, but the supply - demand expectation may weaken, and the upward increase may be limited. Consider cautious operation on dips [38] 3.5.6 PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. The PTA load has decreased, the polyester load has increased, and the downstream is digesting inventory. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil and PX [39] - In the short term, the PTA supply - demand situation has improved, and the cost is bullish. Consider going long on dips [39] 3.5.7 Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol main contract rose slightly. The overall ethylene - glycol operating load has increased, and some Iranian devices have stopped. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream polyester operating rate has increased. The terminal loom operating rate has declined [40] - In the short term, the ethylene - glycol supply - demand situation has weakened, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The supply may be further reduced due to geopolitical factors. Be cautiously bullish, and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [40] 3.5.8 Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. The short - fiber device load has decreased, the downstream sales are average, and the raw - material price has strengthened, providing support [41] - The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost is supportive, and the supply has decreased. Consider short - term long positions on dips and pay attention to opportunities to widen the processing fee [41] 3.5.9 Bottle - Chip - The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. The raw - material price has strengthened, and the device maintenance has increased, which has boosted the market. The downstream soft - drink consumption has continued to recover, and the bottle - chip export has maintained high - speed growth [42] - The bottle - chip supply - demand situation has improved. It is expected to follow the cost and fluctuate. Consider cautious participation on dips and pay attention to opportunities to widen the processing fee [42] 3.5.10 Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda - ash main contract fell slightly. The soda - ash device has been slightly adjusted, the downstream demand is average, and the inventory has increased. The supply has increased, and the new orders are general [43] - The long - term supply - surplus situation of soda ash is difficult to relieve, and the downstream demand is weak. The short - term rebound is not recommended to be over - chased [43][45] 3.5.11 Glass - The previous trading day, the glass main contract rose. The actual supply - demand situation has no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak. The market is at a historical low, and the short - term rebound may not be sustainable [46]