华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250623

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The price of finished steel is expected to move in a range-bound manner, with its center of gravity shifting downward and showing a weak performance. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, supported by low inventory and the impact of the rainy season in Guinea, but limited by the off-season pressure on the demand side [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Content Finished Steel - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will mostly shut down for maintenance from mid - to late January, with a resumption of production expected between the 11th and 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons for some steel mills [1][2]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - The price of finished steel continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - According to data on June 20, the weekly arrival of bauxite at domestic ports was 4.2009 million tons, a decrease of 38,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly departure of bauxite from major ports in Guinea was 3.0638 million tons, a decrease of 1.0108 million tons from the previous week. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments is expected to gradually emerge in late June [2]. - In early June, the off - season atmosphere in the downstream aluminum processing industry was strong, with the weekly operating rate dropping 0.6 percentage points to 59.8% from the previous week. As of June 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas was 449,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons from Monday and 11,000 tons from last Thursday. Year - on - year, it decreased by 307,000 tons compared to last year and 69,000 tons compared to 2023, remaining at a near - three - year low [2]. - There is a slight expectation of an increase in the proportion of molten aluminum in June. The overall low domestic ingot casting volume is expected to maintain the inventory decline trend. However, due to the expectation of some aluminum plants to increase ingot casting, there has been a slight increase in supply and shipments in the northwest, and due to price differences, inter - regional transfers have increased the arrival volume this week, relieving the tight supply of marketable goods to some extent [2]. - The high - level and strong operation of aluminum prices will inevitably suppress domestic demand during the off - season, and the outbound volume is expected to weaken, resulting in a slowdown in the overall domestic inventory decline in the second half of the month [2]. - Overseas macro instability persists. The current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of molten aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually reflected in ore prices, but the off - season pressure on the demand side limits the upward space. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3].