食饮周报：纠偏禁酒提振情绪，利好酒水估值修复-20250623

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Insights - The beverage sector has shown resilience, particularly in the liquor segment, following media reports that have alleviated concerns over strict alcohol consumption regulations. This has led to a positive market sentiment and a recovery in valuations for liquor companies [3][14] - The beer sector has also performed well, with a 1.91% increase, driven by improved sentiment and a recovery in dining revenues. The overall restaurant income in May increased by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer spending [4][15] - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the health products, soft drinks, and snack sectors, highlighting their growth potential due to new consumption trends and low base effects [5][16] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline of 0.12% during the week of June 16-20, with specific segments like beer (+1.91%) and liquor (+1.10%) showing positive performance, while snacks (-6.21%) and health products (-4.48%) faced declines [2][22] Liquor Insights - The liquor segment, particularly the white liquor category, has seen a recovery due to recent government clarifications on alcohol consumption regulations. The current PE-TTM for the white liquor index stands at 18X, which is considered low compared to historical averages [3][14] - Key recommendations include Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from improved market conditions [6][21] Beer Insights - The beer sector's performance is linked to the recovery in dining and consumer spending, with notable increases in companies like Yanjing (+6.6%) and Zhujiang (+4.4%) [4][15] - The report anticipates that ongoing consumption promotion policies will further boost beer sales in the medium to long term [4][15] Consumer Goods Insights - The consumer goods sector is advised to focus on "cost reduction and efficiency improvement" and "market share enhancement" as key investment themes. The report highlights the potential in health products, snacks, and soft drinks due to their growth trajectories [5][16] - Specific companies to watch include Li Ziyuan, Chengde Lulou, and Dongpeng Beverage, which are expected to benefit from upcoming seasonal demand and cost advantages [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Continued recommendations for soft drinks and low-alcohol products due to their favorable market conditions and growth potential [6][20] - In the liquor sector, strong alpha companies like Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai are highlighted for their ability to capitalize on market concentration benefits [6][21]