Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's "consensus expectation" of the bond market in the third quarter is strong, but it may lead to low volatility after "front - running." The probability of low - volatility due to "consensus expectation" is higher in the current market. When expectations are fulfilled, it may be the time for profit - taking. Asset - side interest rates will experience oscillations after "front - running" [4][20]. - The central bank's restart of treasury bond purchases needs to form a large short - end buying increment to create the "steep illusion" of the treasury bond yield curve, which is crucial for long - end interest rate trading [3][4]. - The long - end interest rate may break through the previous low by relying on the "steep illusion" of the treasury bond yield curve. However, the 1 - year treasury bond has limited further downward space, and if it continues to decline in the same way as funds and short - end coupon products, the space it brings to the 10 - year treasury bond is also limited [3][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs "Consensus Expectation" as a Trading Bottleneck - Funds: The view on funds has been mostly realized. The 7D central rate still has some downward space. The rapid relaxation of the funds in June was driven by the increase in large - bank lending scale, which reached around 5 trillion. The 7 - month early period may see the funds price reach the bottom of its decline. Although there may be fluctuations during the tax period in late July, the stable and loose state is likely to continue, and the loose window can be measured in quarters [11][13]. - Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs): The view on NCDs has also been mostly realized. The subsequent trading center of NCDs may be 1.6%. Although the NCD interest rate may be lower than 1.6% at certain points in early July, the significance of 1.6% as the pricing center can be maintained throughout the third quarter [14]. - Long - end Interest Rates: The long - end interest rate may break through the previous low through the "steep illusion" of the treasury bond yield curve. The 1 - year treasury bond has limited further downward space, and the market hopes to see an "excess" downward space for the 1 - year treasury bond to bring more downward space for the 10 - year treasury bond [17]. - Market Expectation of Central Bank's Treasury Bond Purchase: The market's bet on the central bank's restart of treasury bond purchases is overly consistent. The "consensus expectation" of the bond market in the third quarter may lead to low volatility after "front - running" [4][20].
流动性周报：债券“一致预期”怎么看？-20250623
China Post Securities·2025-06-23 05:13