东海证券晨会纪要-20250623

Key Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of oil price fluctuations and market risk preferences on asset allocation strategies [5][7] - The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance amid increasing internal disagreements, as indicated by the recent FOMC meeting [10][11] - The report highlights the stability of the LPR and the collaboration between the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority for cross-border payment systems [15][16] Group 1: Oil Price and Market Risk - Global equity markets showed poor performance in the week of June 20, with oil prices rebounding due to escalating Middle Eastern tensions, while gold prices declined [5][7] - Brent crude oil prices fluctuated between $70.56 and $79.04 per barrel, with expectations of sustained high prices due to potential supply disruptions from geopolitical conflicts [7] - The report suggests investing in energy, upstream sectors, and military industries due to the anticipated impact of rising oil prices on inflation and related costs [7] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent FOMC meeting resulted in the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, with a more hawkish dot plot indicating increased internal divisions among officials [10][11] - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 were downgraded by 30 basis points to 1.4%, while inflation and unemployment predictions were adjusted upward, reflecting a "stagflation" outlook [11][12] - Fed Chair Powell revised his previous stance on "transitory inflation," acknowledging the potential for persistent inflation effects due to tariffs and other factors [12] Group 3: Financial Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3359 points, reflecting a lack of strong buying interest [19][20] - The report notes that the banking, liquor, and electronic chemical sectors saw net inflows, while IT services and cultural media sectors faced significant outflows [21][22] - Market sentiment remains low, with only 22% of industry sectors closing in the green, indicating a cautious investment environment [20][21]