铁矿石：需求止跌回稳，矿价偏强运行

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term domestic macro expectation has increased, the market trading focus may gradually shift to the strong reality. The demand remains at a relatively high level to support the futures price. The supply is expected to increase month - on - month, and the inventory tends to accumulate but the pressure is weak. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate within a range and run strongly. The later focus is on whether the hot metal production rebounds beyond expectations and the policy increment of the Political Bureau meeting [3] 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Logic - Last week, the market mainly traded the escalation and easing of geopolitical tensions. The black series fluctuated narrowly, and the iron ore price followed the trend, with coking coal performing strongly. The demand for finished products continued the off - season characteristics but did not accumulate inventory, performing stronger than expected. The supply of iron ore showed seasonal incremental characteristics, and the carbon element continued to give way to the iron element. The blast furnace profit was relatively considerable, and the domestic iron ore demand remained at a relatively high level, supporting the iron ore price. In June, the basis of iron ore returned from the spot to the futures. The spot price dropped significantly compared with the end of May, while the futures was relatively stable [3] Supply - Last Monday, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipments from Australia to China and the total Australian shipments declined, while Brazilian shipments remained at a relatively high level, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. The arrival volume decreased significantly month - on - month. Overall, June is the peak season for overseas iron ore shipments. It is expected that the overseas shipments will steadily recover, and the domestic actual supply will increase significantly. The support from the supply side will weaken marginally. The later focus is on the investment of non - mainstream mines [3] Demand - The domestic hot metal production ended a five - week decline and rebounded slightly. The current daily average hot metal production is 242.18 (month - on - month + 0.57). With the high profitability of steel mills and considerable blast furnace profits, combined with the deep losses of the short - process steelmaking and the significant increase in the iron - scrap price difference, it is expected that the short - term iron ore demand will be tough and support the price [3] Inventory - Due to the continuous increase in sea - going shipments, the inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills has been rising month - on - month, and the daily consumption has increased due to the resumption of production of some steel mills. Steel mills mostly purchase on demand. Due to the decrease in arrival volume and the increase in port clearance volume, the port inventory decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will gradually accumulate slightly, but the pressure is weak due to high demand [3] Price - The i2509 contract price ranges from 695 yuan/ton to 720 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE07 contract price ranges from 93 to 96 US dollars/ton [3]