每周投资策略-20250623

Group 1: US Market Focus - The core commodity prices are expected to reflect tariff impacts more significantly starting mid-year, with a bullish outlook for US stocks in the second half of the year [7][16]. - The Federal Reserve maintained the policy interest rate at 3.9% during the June meeting, aligning with market expectations, while adjusting inflation and unemployment forecasts upward and economic growth forecasts downward [9][12]. - The upcoming release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is anticipated to show a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with core PCE expected to rise to 2.6% [16] Group 2: Company Insights - Circle Internet, a major stablecoin issuer, has issued over $60 billion in USDC, with a trading volume of $25 trillion, benefiting from the evolving regulatory landscape in the US [41]. - Robinhood is expected to continue benefiting from the US stock market and cryptocurrency trends, with a focus on enhancing user experience and product offerings, which may lead to market share growth [41]. - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF aims to replicate the performance of the S&P 500 index, which includes companies from all 11 GICS sectors, providing diversified exposure to large-cap US stocks [42]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The S&P 500's 25-year revenue and earnings growth forecasts have been adjusted downwards, reflecting market pricing in of tariff tensions and economic slowdown [27][35]. - The technology sector is highlighted for its strong growth momentum and reasonable valuation, while utilities and healthcare sectors are also recommended due to their dividend characteristics and growth potential from new treatments [37].