黑色金属数据日报-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain volatile, waiting for a driving force to break through. The macro - level lacks new drivers, and the cost - collapse narrative in the black sector has become less smooth. The market is cautious about demand during the off - season, and there is no strong rebound driver for the black sector. The steel basis still shows a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there is a possibility of the spot price moving towards the futures price during the off - season [4][5]. - The spot market for coking coal and coke is still weak, with the fourth round of price cuts for coke about to be implemented. However, the futures market has strengthened, and the basis has rapidly narrowed. Although the spot market sentiment has improved, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations. It is recommended that industrial customers actively participate in hedging, and ordinary investors wait for the situation to become clear [6]. - The steel tender prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have been determined, and the prices are expected to stabilize in the short term. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is weak, and attention should be paid to the actions of alloy plants due to increased production losses. The supply of silicomanganese has recovered, the demand has weakened, and the price is under pressure but the short - term decline space is limited [7]. - The trend of iron ore has not changed, and a short - selling strategy is recommended. Although the molten iron output has slightly increased, the inventory of steel mills has risen significantly due to increased sea - borne cargo. The iron ore shipment is increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight decline to a slight increase. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, a reduction in steel mill profits is necessary for spontaneous production cuts [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: On June 20, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2985 yuan/ton with a 5 - yuan increase (0.17% increase), HC2601 at 3107 yuan/ton with a 9 - yuan increase (0.29% increase), I2601 at 674 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase (0.60% increase), J2601 at 1411.5 yuan/ton with a 14.5 - yuan increase (1.04% increase), and JM2601 at 821.5 yuan/ton with a 9.5 - yuan increase (1.17% increase). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2992 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase (0.23% increase), HC2510 at 3116 yuan/ton with a 12 - yuan increase (0.39% increase), I2509 at 703 yuan/ton with a 6.5 - yuan increase (0.93% increase), J2509 at 1384.5 yuan/ton with a 216.5 - yuan increase (1.21% increase), and JM2509 at 795 yuan/ton with an 8.5 - yuan increase (1.08% increase) [2]. - Spreads and Ratios: The cross - month spreads, spreads, ratios, and profits of futures contracts also showed corresponding changes on June 20. For example, the RB2510 - 2601 spread was 7 yuan/ton with no change, the HC2510 - 2601 spread was 9 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase, the coil - to - rebar spread was 124 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.26 with a 0.02 decrease, etc. [2]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: On June 20, the spot prices of various products also had different changes. For example, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3070 yuan/ton with no change, Tianjin rebar was 3220 yuan/ton with no change, Guangzhou rebar was 3150 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan decrease, Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3210 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase, etc. [2]. - Basis: The basis of various products also changed. For example, the HC main - contract basis was 94 yuan/ton with a 17 - yuan increase, the RB main - contract basis was 78 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan decrease, etc. [2]. Investment Strategies - Steel: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, conduct rolling hedging and open - position management, and rotate spot inventories. For on - the - disk arbitrage, pay attention to short - term long positions in coking coal and coke. Industrial customers should actively participate in selling hedging [9]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Hold long positions in ferrosilicon and short positions in silicomanganese, and participate in single - side trading through options [9].