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政策及中报预期有望活跃
HTSC·2025-06-23 05:30

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials sector [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that policy measures and mid-year performance expectations are likely to stimulate activity in the construction materials sector, with a focus on the differentiated investment in fiberglass [13][14]. - Infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing fixed asset investments showed mixed results, with infrastructure maintaining growth while real estate declined significantly [15][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming mid-year performance disclosures and the potential for increased domestic investment in July due to improved project funding and debt resolution efforts [13][15]. Summary by Sections Investment Trends - From January to May 2025, fixed asset investments in infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing showed year-on-year changes of +5.6%, -10.7%, and +8.5% respectively, indicating a decline in real estate investment [15]. - Key sectors such as electricity, railways, and water conservancy continue to exhibit high levels of activity despite a general slowdown in construction [15][18]. Market Dynamics - The report notes a continued decline in prices for photovoltaic glass, with expectations of supply contraction in Q3 2025 due to production adjustments by leading companies [13][22]. - The domestic supply of fiberglass continues to increase, while overseas production capacity is shutting down, leading to tight supply for high-end electronic yarns and fabrics [13][23]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies with high growth potential, including: - Yaxiang Integration (603929 CH) with a target price of 38.40 and a "Buy" rating - Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039 CH) with a target price of 11.03 and a "Buy" rating - China Nuclear Engineering (601611 CH) with a target price of 10.81 and a "Buy" rating - China Construction International (3311 HK) with a target price of 15.61 and a "Buy" rating - China National Materials (002080 CH) with a target price of 19.60 and a "Buy" rating [11][39]. Price Trends - As of June 20, 2025, the national average price for cement was 361 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.1% [29]. - The average price for float glass was 65 RMB/weight box, down 2.1% week-on-week and 25.9% year-on-year [30][21]. Inventory and Production - The report indicates that as of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of float glass in key monitored provinces was approximately 60.52 million weight boxes, with an inventory turnover of about 31.24 days [32]. - The production capacity for photovoltaic glass remains stable, with 459 production lines in operation, maintaining a daily melting capacity of 98,990 tons [33].