聚酯数据日报-20250623

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran and the conflict between Israel and other regions have escalated, leading to expectations of continued oil price increases, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow. [2] - The downstream load of polyester remains at 91.3% despite the expected reduction, and the actual production of polyester has reached a new high. Recent promotions have helped with inventory reduction. [2] - PTA will reduce inventory in the coming period. The action of major factories to increase the basis for sales has had a significant impact on the market, and PTA spot is becoming tight. [2] - The ethylene price increase has strengthened the cost - side, and the export of Iranian petrochemicals is expected to be affected. However, the overall import volume of ethylene glycol from Iran is limited. [2] - Ethylene glycol continues to reduce inventory, with a decrease in arrivals. The reduction in polyester production has a certain impact on the market, and the port inventory of ethylene glycol has changed little. [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price dropped from 570.9 yuan/barrel on June 19, 2025, to 566.6 yuan/barrel on June 20, 2025, a decrease of 4.30 yuan/barrel. [2] - PTA: PTA - SC spread increased from 839.2 yuan/ton to 860.5 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.2023 to 1.2090. PTA主力期价 decreased from 4988 yuan/ton to 4978 yuan/ton, while the spot price increased from 5190 yuan/ton to 5275 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee increased from 324.7 yuan/ton to 390.3 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased slightly from 270 to 269. PTA仓单数量 decreased from 37468 to 36804. [2] - PX: CFR China PX price dropped from 904 to 896, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 271 to 250. [2] - MEG: MEG主力期价 decreased from 4539 yuan/ton to 4501 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha spread increased slightly from (135.53) to (134.72). MEG内盘 price increased from 4585 to 4594, and the basis increased from 82 to 86. [2] - Industrial Chain开工率: PX开工率 remained at 82.70%, PTA开工率 remained at 78.56%, MEG开工率 increased slightly from 57.88% to 57.91%, and polyester负荷 increased from 89.98% to 90.16%. [2] - Polyester Products: The prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, DTY150D/48F, 1.4D直纺涤短, and semi - light切片 all increased. The cash flows of POY, FDY, DTY, and切片 all decreased, while the cash flow of涤短 increased. The long - filament sales rate increased from 31% to 33%, the short - fiber sales rate decreased from 61% to 53%, and the切片 sales rate decreased from 42% to 39%. [2] 2. Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been shut down for maintenance recently, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days. [2]