豆粕日报-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core Views - The short - term trends of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil are rebounds; cotton is under pressure during the rebound; jujube is at risk of a decline; and live pigs are in a wide - range oscillation [1]. - For soybean meal, the overall fundamentals remain bearish, and caution is needed when chasing long positions. For rapeseed meal, due to the strong price of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, there are opportunities to go long at low prices. For palm oil, attention should be paid to the risk fluctuations of crude oil in the future, and caution is needed when chasing long positions above 8700 yuan. For cotton, although there is support at the bottom, the upward momentum is weak. For jujube, be vigilant against the risk of the market rising first and then falling. For live pigs, consider short - selling on rebounds or reverse calendar spreads [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Market Situation: Internationally, South American soybean production is basically determined, and the planting of US soybeans has started with normal rainfall in June. Domestically, ports and oil mills' soybean inventories are accumulating, and soybean meal supply is also entering a stock - building period. Feed enterprise inventories are gradually returning to the normal range, and spot trading has been average recently [3]. - Data: As of June 13, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 742.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.50 million tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 599.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.69 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 47.41 million tons; the soybean meal inventory was 41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 58.49 million tons [3]. - Trading Advice: The previous day's soybean meal rebounded, but approaching the previous high resistance, it is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions and to wait and see. Before the release of the US soybean acreage report, it is expected to run above the 20 - day moving average [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - Market Situation: Domestically, rapeseed meal inventories are much higher than in the past two years, and the new - season rapeseed has been harvested and listed in May. However, from June to August, rapeseed imports are expected to decline significantly year - on - year, and the long - term import volume is expected to be low. The price of old - crop Canadian rapeseed is strong [7]. - Data: As of June 13, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 17.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.55 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.35 million tons; the unexecuted contracts were 5.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.45 million tons [7]. - Trading Advice: The short - term adjustment space of the rapeseed meal main contract is limited, and opportunities to go long at low prices can be considered. Pay attention to the subsequent Sino - Canadian trade situation for far - month contracts [1][7]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: Internationally, the inventory - building cycle of Southeast Asian palm oil has begun, but factors such as India's increased imports and the promotion of Malaysia's B20 policy have affected market sentiment. Domestically, the commercial inventory of palm oil is low, and imports have improved compared to the previous period [1]. - Data: As of the 24th week of 2025 (June 13), the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory was 40.96 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.70 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.20 million tons. The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending requirement of 5.61 billion gallons of biomass - based diesel (BBD) in 2026. In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil exports increased by 599,000 tons month - on - month, and China's palm oil imports were 180,000 tons [8]. - Trading Advice: The palm oil price rebounded, but considering the inventory - building cycle, caution is needed when chasing long positions above 8700 yuan, and attention should be paid to position control [1][9]. Cotton - Market Situation: Internationally, the US cotton planting progress is slow, and the drought situation has improved. Domestically, new cotton is growing well, the import of cotton in May decreased, and the destocking of domestic cotton is fast. However, downstream orders have weakened [11][12]. - Data: As of June 16, the US cotton planting progress was 85%. In May 2025, the domestic import of cotton resources was about 124,662 tons. The weekly order volume of textile enterprises decreased by 0.51 days to 9.91 days [11][12]. - Trading Advice: The Zhengzhou cotton's upward momentum is weak, but there is support at the bottom, and it is expected to operate in a short - term range [1][13]. Jujube - Market Situation: In the production areas, jujube trees are growing well, but high temperatures may affect flowering. The inventory is high, and the demand is in the off - season [15]. - Data: This week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,680 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13 tons, higher than the same period by 4,531 tons [15]. - Trading Advice: Be vigilant against the risk of the jujube market rising first and then falling, and continuously pay attention to the actual situation in the production areas [1][15]. Live Pigs - Market Situation: In the short - term, the planned slaughter in June has decreased slightly, but there may still be an increase in the slaughter plan. In the medium - term, there will be pressure on supply from October to November. In the long - term, the far - month production capacity has not shown an inflection point. The demand for slaughter has decreased, and the second - fattening replenishment has increased [17]. - Data: In May 2025, the number of newly - born piglets in steel - union designated enterprises increased by 64,600 to 543,390. The national sample enterprises' pig inventory in May was 37.0841 million, and the slaughter volume was 11.0882 million heads [16][17]. - Trading Advice: It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds or conduct reverse calendar spreads for the 09 and 11 contracts, focusing on the subsequent adjustment of production capacity [1][18].