国贸期货黑色金属周报-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The black metal market is in a state of oscillation, with different sub - sectors showing varying trends. There is no strong driving force for a significant rebound in the black metal sector in the short - term, and investors should adopt a cautious and wait - and - see approach, making specific trading decisions based on different varieties [5][62][111] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Threaded Steel - Supply: Tends to be bearish. Long - process steel mills have profit, and short - process profit is unstable. Overall production is expected to remain stable with a slight decline, and large - scale production cuts are unlikely without administrative requirements [5] - Demand: Neutral. There is a slight improvement in demand, and exports remain strong. However, the market is worried about the weakening of demand expectations, and the upward price drive is not strong [5] - Inventory: Neutral. The total inventory level is low, and the seasonal inventory reduction is slowing down. The industry is in an active de - stocking state [5] - Basis/Spread: Bullish. The basis is stable, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. As of Friday, the rb2510 basis in the East China (Hangzhou) region was 58, an increase of 7 from the previous week [5] - Profit: Bearish. Long - process production has profit, while short - process production profit is unstable, and the production cut amplitude has increased slightly [5] - Valuation: Neutral. There are thin profits in the industrial chain, with relatively low relative valuation and room for compression in absolute valuation [5] - Macro and Policy: Neutral. The real estate market has declined further, and the market has low expectations for incremental policies [5] - Investment View: Wait - and - see. There is no strong driving force for a rebound in the black metal sector in the off - season, and the basis structure of futures at a discount to spot can be used as a reference for basis trading [5] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, conduct rolling hedging and manage positions, and consider appropriate inventory rotation; for arbitrage, short - term long the spread between hot - rolled coils and threaded steel; for basis trading, consider short - term basis trading [5] 3.2. Coking Coal and Coke - Demand: Neutral. The apparent demand for five major steel products has shown resilience, and the daily average hot - metal production has slightly increased. The profitability of steel mills is fair, and the hot - metal production has strong resilience in the off - season [62] - Coking Coal Supply: Neutral. Domestic coal mines are in a state of mixed shutdown and resumption. Mongolian coal customs clearance is at a medium - low level, and the shipping coal market sentiment has slightly improved [62] - Coke Supply: Neutral. Coke production has continued to decline, and although coking profits are shrinking, the overall profits of coke enterprises are still good considering by - product revenues [62] - Inventory: Bearish. Downstream enterprises continue to maintain low inventory levels, and there are differences in coal mine data. As the end of the month approaches, the short - term supply disturbances may subside [62] - Basis/Spread: Bearish. The fourth round of coke price cuts has been initiated, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, leading to an increase in basis trading [62] - Profit: Neutral. Steel mills have good profitability, and although coking profits are shrinking, the overall situation of coke enterprises is still acceptable [62] - Summary: Bearish. Affected by the Israel - Palestine conflict and improved industrial data, the black metal sector has been strong, but the divergence between the futures and spot markets of coking coal and coke is large. It is recommended that industrial customers conduct hedging, and ordinary investors wait and see [62] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, industrial customers should actively conduct basis hedging; for arbitrage, long the spread between the September and January contracts of coking coal [62] 3.3. Iron Ore - Supply: Bearish. Iron ore shipments are seasonally increasing, and the arrival pressure will gradually materialize. The marginal increase in supply will relieve the pressure on near - month contracts [111] - Demand: Bearish. Steel mill hot - metal production has slightly increased and remains at a relatively high level. Steel demand has shown resilience in the off - season, but the market is still waiting for a decline in downstream steel demand [111] - Inventory: Bearish. Port inventory has slightly decreased this period, but the subsequent inventory of ports and ships at anchor will continue to increase [111] - Profit: Neutral. Steel mill profits are still high, and hot - metal production can remain at a high level in the short - term [111] - Valuation: Neutral. Hot - metal production is at a high level, and the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [111] - Summary: Neutral. The slight decline in hot - metal production has led to a transition from slight inventory reduction to slight inventory accumulation in port inventory. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, steel mill production cuts are necessary [111] - Investment View: Oscillation [111] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, short at high prices; for arbitrage, wait and see [111]