蛋白数据日报-20250623

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten; under the current Sino - U.S. trade policy, the Brazilian premium is firm; domestic demand provides support. The inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal is slow, but the crushing margin is good and ship purchases continue. The soybeans corresponding to I09 have basically completed procurement. As downstream replenishment is gradually completed, soybean meal is expected to accelerate inventory accumulation later. It is expected that I09 will trend sideways. M11 and M01 are expected to maintain a sideways - to - bullish trend supported by import costs. Attention should be paid to the results of the end - of - month USDA planting area report [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in June, July, and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The current ship - buying progress is 100% for July, 66.8% for August, and 25.3% for September. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop U.S. soybeans tends to tighten, with the excellent - good rate dropping to 60%, lower than the same period last year. The Midwest production areas of U.S. soybeans will be slightly dry in the next two weeks, but the dryness will not last long and there is no speculation driver for now [7]. Demand - Judging from the livestock inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November; the poultry inventory remains at a high level; soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the feed addition ratio has increased, and the提货 volume is at a high level; in some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein, and the trading volume of the far - month basis of soybean meal fluctuates [8]. Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly but is still at a low level. The inventory accumulation speed is slower than expected, but there is an expectation of accelerated inventory accumulation later. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased slightly but is still low [8].