基础化工行业周报：山东暂停高密仁和化工产业园资格，看好化工行业龙头长期价值-20250623

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The chemical industry is currently in a downcycle, with recent safety incidents leading to stricter regulations on high-risk chemical projects. Leading companies with better safety management and advanced production technologies are expected to benefit from stable production amidst supply constraints [2][3] - The recent suspension of the Gaomi Renhe Chemical Industrial Park in Shandong due to a major safety incident will impact the supply of chlorantraniliprole and its intermediates, leading to price increases in the market [1][2] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Yangnong Chemical, which are expected to maintain long-term value [2][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a downturn, with safety incidents prompting tighter regulations on high-risk projects. Leading firms are likely to benefit from their superior safety protocols and production capabilities [2] Recent Developments - A significant safety accident at Shandong Youdao Chemical has led to the suspension of the Gaomi Renhe Chemical Industrial Park, affecting the supply of chlorantraniliprole and its intermediates. This has resulted in a strong cost support for chlorantraniliprole, with market prices reaching 305,000 CNY per ton as of June 20 [1] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in chlorantraniliprole, such as Lier Chemical, and those with K amine, like Lianhua Technology. It also suggests looking at competitors of chlorantraniliprole, such as Yangnong Chemical [1][2] - For the upstream oil and gas sector, companies like China Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] Price Trends - The report tracks price movements of key chemical products, noting significant increases in diesel and Brent crude oil prices, which rose by 10.97% and 10.58% respectively over the past week [18][19] Sub-industry Dynamics - The report highlights various sub-industries, including the polyester market, which is experiencing price fluctuations due to seasonal demand changes. The polyurethane market is facing weak domestic demand, while the titanium dioxide sector is seeing supply constraints due to structural adjustments [21][22]