集运日报：MSK小幅下调运价，伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡，宏观情绪或将升温，近期博弈难度较大，建议轻仓参与或观望。-20250623

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to Maersk's slight reduction in the price increase, the deterioration of the Middle - East situation, and the lack of significant progress in Sino - US talks, the shipping market has high uncertainty. The market is in a weak and volatile state, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2][3]. - In the short - term, when the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions at high prices. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Market Data - SCFIS and NCFI Indexes: On June 16, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1697.63 points, up 4.6% from the previous period, and for the US - West route was 2908.68 points, up 33.1%. On June 20, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1382.05 points, down 10.07% from the previous period, and for the European route was 1299.58 points, down 0.64%, and for the US - West route was 1586.05 points, down 28.91% [2]. - SCFI and CCFI Indexes: On June 20, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1869.59 points, down 218.65 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1835 USD/TEU, down 0.49%, and for the US - West route was 2772 USD/FEU, down 32.86%. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1342.46 points, up 8.0%, for the European route was 1578.60 points, up 6.0%, and for the US - West route was 1256.91 points, up 14.8% [2]. - Futures Market: On June 20, the main contract 2508 closed at 1890, down 6.99%, with a trading volume of 68,900 lots and an open interest of 46,000 lots, an increase of 3393 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply and Demand and Price Trends: Although liner companies announced price increases for early July, Maersk slightly reduced the increase due to the lack of significant changes in market supply and demand. The deterioration of the Middle - East situation has increased market uncertainties, leading to a weak and volatile market [3]. - Macroeconomic Data: The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI was 49.4, slightly higher than expected; the service PMI was 48.9, lower than expected. The US May Markit manufacturing PMI was 52.3, a three - month high, and the service PMI was also at a two - month high [2]. 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - Short - term Strategy: When the fundamentals do not show an obvious turn, it is recommended to try short positions at high prices. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000. For the 2510 contract, if trying long positions, set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Under the background of tariff relaxation, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a situation where the near - term freight rates are stronger than the long - term ones. It is necessary to pay attention to the court's ruling, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - Long - term Strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. 3.4 Other Information - Contract Adjustments: The daily limit for contracts from 2506 to 2604 is adjusted to 16%. The company's margin for these contracts is adjusted to 26%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2506 to 2604 is 100 lots [4]. - Geopolitical Events: Iran condemned the US's "barbaric military aggression" against its nuclear facilities and launched a new round of missile attacks on Israel, using the "Khyber" missile for the first time [5].