Dongxing Securities·2025-06-23 06:39Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained for the next 3-6 months [4]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry experienced a business volume of 17.318 billion pieces in May, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.2%. However, the growth rate has been gradually declining since March, attributed to a high base from the previous year [2][10]. - SF Express has shown significant growth, achieving a volume increase of 31.8% in May, which is notably higher than other listed companies in the industry. This growth is linked to SF's strategy of extending its services towards high-end e-commerce packages [2][14]. - The average single ticket revenue in the industry continues to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% in May. Intense price competition is evident, particularly among major players like Shentong, Yunda, and Yuantong, whose single ticket revenues have also seen declines [3][9][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In May, the total business volume for express delivery services reached 17.318 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 17.2%. The growth in same-city deliveries was 10.4%, while intercity deliveries grew by 18.0% [2][10]. - The industry growth rate has been slowing down since March, influenced by a high comparison base from the previous year [10]. 2. Business Volume - SF Express has outperformed the industry with a growth rate of 31.8% in May, significantly higher than its peers. Its market share increased by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [2][14]. - Among the major players, only Yuantong's growth exceeded the industry average, indicating a strong focus on market share [2][14]. 3. Revenue Trends - The average single ticket price in the industry saw a slight decline month-on-month in May, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%. The single ticket revenues for Shentong, Yunda, and Yuantong fell by 3.0%, 5.4%, and 4.9% respectively [3][9][27]. - SF Express reported a 14.0% year-on-year decline in single ticket revenue, primarily due to an increase in e-commerce package volume [3][30]. 4. Competitive Landscape - The report suggests that the "price-for-volume" strategy is showing diminishing returns, indicating that the market for price-sensitive customers is becoming saturated. This could lead to a shift in the competitive dynamics of the industry [4][23]. - The report anticipates that the intensity of price competition will remain high in the short term, as industry leaders continue to seek market share through aggressive pricing strategies [4][42]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the need for companies to focus on service quality as a means of differentiation, particularly in the mid-to-high-end e-commerce segment. It recommends paying close attention to industry leaders such as Zhongtong and Yuantong, which are positioned to benefit from this trend [7][42].