固定收益点评：利率能突破前低吗？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current bond market interest rate has limited downward momentum and is difficult to break through the previous lows. Further long - position opportunities may require a significant decline in certificate of deposit rates or an increase in expectations of interest rate cuts [7][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Formation of Previous Interest Rate Lows - The low point at the beginning of the year was mainly driven by inter - bank deposit rate cuts, the formation of expectations for consecutive reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the strengthening of institutional allocation power [7]. - The low point in April was caused by the introduction of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, which greatly exceeded market expectations, leading to a rapid decline in China's bond market interest rates. On April 7, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate dropped to 1.63%, close to the low point at the beginning of the year [7]. 3.2 Analysis of Whether Interest Rates Can Break Through Previous Lows - Fundamentals: The real - estate performance has a significant impact on the bond market. As of June 21, the commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities in June was basically the same as last year. The economic fundamentals are running smoothly, with good export and consumption performance. Policy remains stable, and the economy has a bottom - line, but it is difficult to have outstanding performance in the short term, so it is expected to have little impact on the bond market [16]. - Funding: Since April, the funding situation has gradually eased, and the bond market interest rates have declined accordingly. Currently, the funding situation remains loose, with DR007 fluctuating between 1.5% - 1.6%. It is expected to run stably in the future, and it is difficult to break through the 1.4% policy rate OMO downward, so the interest rate has limited downward momentum [18]. - Institutional Allocation Power: At the end of the quarter, banks tend to sell bonds to realize floating profits to adjust profits. At the same time, the bond market level is relatively low, and the allocation value is not high, so institutional willingness to enter the market to allocate bonds is limited [7][24]. - Interest Rate Cut Expectations: From the perspective of bank asset comparison, the current bond market level implies an interest rate cut of about 10BP, and the pricing is relatively reasonable. On May 7, the central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut, so the short - term expectation of an interest rate cut is not high [25]. 3.3 Summary The formation of the first two lows this year was mainly due to factors such as a significant increase in interest rate cut expectations, an increase in institutional allocation power, and tariff shocks. Currently, the bond market interest rate has limited downward momentum and is difficult to break through the previous lows. Further long - position opportunities may require a significant decline in certificate of deposit rates or an increase in expectations of interest rate cuts [24].