Market Performance Review - A-shares faced pressure due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, with all major indices declining this week. The Shanghai Composite Index, which has a high proportion of large-cap dividend stocks, fell by only 0.10%, while other indices like the ChiNext and CSI 1000 saw larger declines [3][12][13] - The market sentiment has turned cautious, with only the banking, communication, and electronics sectors showing positive returns amid the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict. Investors shifted towards defensive sectors, particularly high-dividend stocks represented by banks [3][13] A-share High-frequency Data Tracking - The personal investor sentiment index fell into negative territory, with a 7-day moving average of -0.05% as of June 21, down from 4.6% on June 14. This indicates a shift from persistent pessimism to a more neutral stance among investors [4][15] - The financing capital showed slight net inflows, suggesting a potential recovery in investor sentiment, as the financing transaction volume as a percentage of total A-share trading has not decreased after a rebound [18] Future Market Outlook and Investment Views - The A-share market is expected to face continued pressure from geopolitical conflicts, particularly the Israel-Iran situation and potential escalations in U.S. tariffs. The upcoming internal policy window in July may reignite expectations for stimulus policies, particularly in real estate [4][28][29] - Investment strategy should focus on high dividend stocks with good value, such as banks, railways, and utilities. The timing for traditional domestic demand trades remains uncertain and will depend on the introduction of clear stimulus policies [5][29] Industry Rotation and Dividend Value Tracking - The current market is characterized by high rotation speed but low intensity, indicating a sideways trend in indices. The industry rotation began at the end of April and is expected to maintain a fast pace into June [19][21] - The dividend yield of high-dividend stocks, particularly in the banking sector, remains attractive in the context of potential interest rate cuts, enhancing their value proposition [25][21]
短期地缘冲突逆风延续,A股面临压力
China Post Securities·2025-06-23 07:16