迎峰度夏日耗起，煤价回升正可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The coal supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight over the next 3-5 years, with high barriers to entry and strong cash flow characteristics for quality coal companies [12] - The coal price is anticipated to rebound due to increasing consumption during the summer peak and decreasing inventory levels [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of June 22, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 610 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [30] - The price for Shanxi-produced coking coal at Jingtang port remains at 1250 CNY/ton, also unchanged [32] - International thermal coal prices show slight fluctuations, with Newcastle coal at 66.0 USD/ton, up 0.3 USD/ton week-on-week [30] 2. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines is 94.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points week-on-week [48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces increased by 46.60 thousand tons/day (+15.32%) and in coastal provinces by 20.00 thousand tons/day (+11.66%) [49] - The operating rate of steel blast furnaces is at 83.82%, up 0.41 percentage points week-on-week [11] 3. Inventory Situation - As of June 19, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 115.30 thousand tons, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 52.20 thousand tons [49] - The available days of coal in inland provinces decreased by 3.30 days, indicating tighter supply [49] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [12] - Consider companies with high elasticity and potential for recovery, such as Yanzhou Coal and Guohua Energy [12] - Pay attention to quality metallurgical coal companies like Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma [12]