股指期货策略早餐-20250623

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term overseas disturbances have significantly increased, suppressing risk preferences. The situation in the Middle East is uncertain, and the US intervention has an impact on the global and A - share markets. The domestic policy is expected to strengthen due to factors such as investment and inflation data [1][4]. - The market is in a pattern of frequent style switches between large - cap and small - cap stocks, lacking a continuous upward main - line opportunity [1]. - For different futures varieties, their price trends vary in the short and medium - term, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed according to their fundamentals and market conditions [1][2][5][8][10][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - Varieties: IF, IH, IC, IM - Intraday View: Narrow - range oscillation, with an increasing probability of a rebound in IC and IM - Medium - term View: Range - bound oscillation, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] - Reference Strategy: Sell the MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option, and try to go long on IM2507 on dips - Core Logic: Overseas disturbances suppress risk preferences; domestic demand needs further policy support; the market style switches frequently, and the four major indexes are at the lower edge of the box, increasing the probability of a rebound [1] Treasury Bond Futures - Varieties: TS, TF, T, TL - Intraday View: Short - term bonds fluctuate in a narrow range, and long - term bonds continue their relatively strong momentum - Medium - term View: Relatively strong - Reference Strategy: Reduce long positions in trading accounts for T2509 or TL2509, and hold long positions in allocation accounts - Core Logic: Overseas disturbances increase, benefiting safe - haven assets; the central bank's net injection has made the inter - bank liquidity balanced; domestic economic data shows that policy support is expected to strengthen [2][4] Commodity Futures and Options Metal and New Energy Materials Sector Copper - Intraday View: 78000 - 79200 - Medium - term View: 60000 - 90000 - Reference Strategy: Adopt an oscillation - based trading approach - Core Logic: Inflation remains high in the US; global copper supply is tight, and China's copper imports have changed; copper demand in the new energy vehicle industry is strong, while air - conditioner production varies; copper inventories have decreased; the US tariff policy intensifies the supply - demand imbalance, but the domestic off - season may affect prices [5][6][7] Industrial Silicon - Intraday View: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 7350 - 7450 - Medium - term View: Operate under pressure, with an operating range of 7000 - 8500 - Reference Strategy: Sell SI2507 - C - 9000, and go short on futures on rallies - Core Logic: China's industrial silicon production has decreased; demand has also declined; the inventory is at a high level [8][9] Polysilicon - Intraday View: Operate under pressure, with an operating range of 30,000 - 32,000 - Medium - term View: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 30,000 - 40,000 - Reference Strategy: Sell PS2507 - C - 45000 and hold until maturity, and chase short on futures - Core Logic: China's polysilicon production has decreased; demand has declined; the inventory is at a high level, indicating a significant supply surplus [10][11] Lithium Carbonate - Intraday View: Operate at a low level, with an operating range of 58,000 - 60,000 - Medium - term View: The cost support weakens, and the price declines steadily, with an operating range of 56,000 - 65,000 - Reference Strategy: Sell LC2507 - C - 83000 and hold until maturity - Core Logic: The spot price is at a low level, which is negative for futures prices; China's battery - grade lithium carbonate production has increased, and the inventory is at a high level [12][13]