煤炭行业周报：国际油价上涨，期待旺季去库提振煤价-20250623

Investment Rating - The report rates the coal industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recent increase in coal prices, with Q4500 and Q5000 thermal coal prices rising by 1.05% and 3.03% respectively, while Q5500 prices remained stable [3]. - Supply constraints are anticipated due to stricter safety regulations during the national safety production month, which may limit production and support coal prices during the traditional off-peak season [3]. - The report recommends key companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy for their stable operations and high dividends, while also suggesting关注 for companies like Yanzhou Coal and Huabei Mining due to their undervalued potential [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the launch of a coal transportation initiative from Xinjiang to Henan, marking a strategic cooperation for energy supply [5][9]. - It notes the increase in green electricity exports from Qinghai to Guangdong, reflecting a growing trend in renewable energy [9]. Price Trends - Thermal coal prices have shown stability, with various regional prices holding steady or experiencing slight fluctuations [10][13]. - Coking coal prices are also stable, with some regional prices experiencing minor declines [13]. International Oil Price Surge - Brent crude oil prices increased by 3.75%, which may impact coal pricing dynamics as the relationship between oil and coal prices shifts [17]. Port Inventory and Shipping Costs - The report indicates a slight increase in coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports, with average daily coal inflow rising by 2.60% [21]. - Domestic shipping costs have decreased, while international shipping rates have seen a slight increase, affecting overall coal transportation economics [29]. Company Valuation Table - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [35].