商用车行业月报（2025年5月）：重卡：5月销量同比连增环比小降，政策逐步落地促使行业回温-20250623

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The heavy truck market showed a total sales volume of 85,000 units in May 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 8.97% and a slight month-on-month decrease of 3.08% [9][11] - The "old-for-new" policy has entered a substantial implementation phase, providing clear support for the heavy truck market, which is expected to maintain continuous growth in wholesale and terminal sales in the second half of 2025 [3][36] - The natural gas heavy truck market experienced a significant decline in sales, reaching a near four-year low, but is expected to recover in the second half of the year due to falling LNG prices and local subsidies [20][23] - The new energy heavy truck market saw a remarkable year-on-year increase of 190% in May, achieving the highest penetration rate of 23.92% [28][32] Summary by Sections Heavy Truck Market Overview - In May 2025, the heavy truck market maintained a continuous year-on-year growth, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and an increase in terminal sales [9][10] - The market is currently facing challenges such as low freight rates and a surplus of vehicles, but the policy is expected to stimulate demand [10][18] Natural Gas Heavy Truck Performance - Sales of natural gas heavy trucks in May were 15,000 units, marking a year-on-year decline of 28.59% and a month-on-month decline of 12.28% [20][23] - The market is highly concentrated, with major players like FAW Jiefang leading the market [23] New Energy Heavy Truck Performance - The new energy heavy truck market achieved sales of 15,100 units in May, with a year-on-year increase of 190% and a penetration rate of 23.92% [28][32] - The market is characterized by a concentrated competitive landscape, with XCMG leading in sales [33][35] Investment Recommendations - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly boost the heavy truck market, with an estimated 400,000 to 500,000 units eligible for replacement in 2025 [3][36] - The second half of 2025 is anticipated to see continued high demand for new energy heavy trucks, with key companies such as FAW Jiefang, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, and Foton Motor being favored [3][36]