保险行业周报（20250616-20250620）：险企提前筹备利率换挡，分红险“限令”预计利好头部-20250623

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the insurance industry, expecting the industry index to rise more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [21]. Core Insights - The insurance index increased by 0.24% this week, outperforming the market by 0.69 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied, with notable increases from ZhongAn (+4.81%) and Xinhua (+3.27%), while some companies like GuoShou (-0.74%) and TaiPing (-1.48%) saw declines [1]. - The report highlights that insurance companies are preparing for a shift in interest rates, particularly focusing on the development of dividend insurance products in response to regulatory changes [2][3]. - The issuance of the "Opinion Letter" regarding dividend insurance is seen as a move to standardize the floating cost levels and enhance the asset-liability matching of insurance companies, which may help mitigate long-term risks associated with interest rate differentials [3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance sector's performance is characterized by a mixed outcome among individual stocks, with the overall index showing a slight increase [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield remains stable at 1.64%, indicating a low volatility environment for interest rates [1]. Recent Developments - Several insurance companies are actively developing new products to adapt to the changing interest rate environment, focusing on training sales personnel and enhancing channel cooperation [2]. - The regulatory body has issued guidelines to ensure that proposed dividend levels are justified and sustainable, particularly for companies rated 1-3 and those with higher proposed dividend levels [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the recent low volatility in long-term interest rates may reduce asset reallocation pressures, leading to improved operational quality in the insurance sector [5]. - The expected recovery in performance metrics, alongside a potential improvement in equity investments, indicates a positive outlook for the insurance companies' growth rates [5]. - The report lists the recommended companies in order: China Taiping, China Pacific Insurance, China Ping An, Xinhua Insurance, and China Life, with respective PEV and PB valuations provided [5][10].