按兵不动，联储分歧

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed results last week, with US indices diverging: Nasdaq and Dow Jones rose, while S&P 500 experienced a slight pullback[3] - Major European indices collectively retreated, while the Asia-Pacific region displayed varied performance[3] Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC meeting maintained interest rates, aligning with expectations, but revealed deepening internal divisions within the committee regarding future rate changes[3] - Votes on potential rate cuts for 2025 showed 7 in favor of no cuts, 2 for one cut, 8 for two cuts, and 2 for three cuts, indicating a median expectation of two cuts being easily overlooked[3] - For 2026, the distribution of votes was more scattered compared to March, with a median expectation shifting from two cuts to one cut[3] Economic Concerns - Powell emphasized the uncertainty in the current economic landscape, highlighting persistent inflation concerns due to trade tensions and geopolitical issues[3] - Trump's recent comments about potentially "firing Powell" echo past tensions between presidents and Fed chairs, raising questions about the Fed's independence[3] Strategic Recommendations - The report suggests a strategy of capitalizing on volatility by selectively shorting volatility assets like SVIX and SVXY, given the uncertain economic environment and potential geopolitical shifts[3] - The upcoming economic negotiations and geopolitical developments, particularly in Iran, may create significant market movements in late June to early July[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market volatility[3]