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第一创业晨会纪要-20250623
First Capital Securities·2025-06-23 08:47

Macroeconomic Group - National general public fiscal revenue from January to May decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with central revenue improving by 0.8 percentage points to -3.0% and local revenue declining by 0.3 percentage points to 1.9% [3] - General public fiscal expenditure increased by 4.2% year-on-year, with central expenditure rising by 0.4 percentage points to 9.4% and local expenditure decreasing by 0.5 percentage points to 3.4% [3] - Government fund revenue from January to May fell by 6.9% year-on-year, with local land use rights revenue down by 11.9% [3] - Tax revenue for January to May showed a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, with securities stamp duty revenue increasing by 52.4% [4] - Non-tax revenue decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in fines and an improvement in the business environment [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - The Democratic Republic of the Congo extended its temporary ban on cobalt exports for three more months due to high inventory levels, with cobalt prices rebounding to 240,000 yuan/ton, a 5% increase year-on-year [7] - The U.S. conducted direct strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with minimal risk of large-scale conflict, potentially impacting oil prices positively for domestic coal chemical industries [7] Consumer Group - The total e-commerce sales during the 618 shopping festival reached 855.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, with a longer promotional period [9] - The beauty sector saw a total GMV of 65.909 billion yuan across four major platforms, with international high-end brands recovering significantly [9] - The overall growth of the cosmetics industry from January to May was 2-3%, with online growth significantly outpacing offline sales [9]