钢材出口的韧性由何而来？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [11] Core Insights - Steel exports showed resilience with a volume of 10.58 million tons in May 2025, up 11.5% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month, despite a decline in export prices [2][8] - The report highlights that the growth in steel exports is supported by the opening of new markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, which offsets declines from traditional markets like Vietnam and South Korea due to anti-dumping measures [8][10] - The export structure is shifting towards higher-value products, with significant increases in the export volumes of rebar and wire rods, which counterbalance declines in flat steel products [9][10] Summary by Sections Export Performance - In May 2025, steel export volume reached 10.58 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.5% and a month-on-month increase of 1.1%. The average export price was $698 per ton, down 8.5% year-on-year but up 0.5% month-on-month [2][8] - The report notes that the export volume exceeded market expectations, particularly in light of anticipated declines due to geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts [2][8] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the overall demand for steel remains weak, with apparent consumption down 2.34% year-on-year but up 2.21% month-on-month [6] - Inventory levels have slightly decreased, with total steel inventory down 1.19% week-on-week, indicating a gradual reduction in stockpiles as the market enters a seasonal lull [7] Export Market Analysis - The report identifies that while exports to Vietnam and South Korea have declined significantly (26% and 11% respectively), exports to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Malaysia have increased by 27%, 51%, 17%, and 41% respectively [8][9] - The shift in export focus to emerging markets is seen as a strategic response to the challenges posed by anti-dumping tariffs in traditional markets [10] Product Mix and Pricing - The growth in exports of construction steel products has helped mitigate the decline in flat steel exports, with rebar and wire rod exports increasing by 89% and 40% respectively [9][10] - The report emphasizes that the export price decline is part of a broader strategy of "trading price for volume," which may lead to future trade disputes but currently supports export volumes [10]