港股市场策略周报2024.1.22-2024.1.28-20250623

Group 1: Market Performance Review - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant pullback this week due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and the Hong Kong dollar approaching the weak side guarantee, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Composite Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index declining by -1.70%, -1.52%, and -2.03% respectively [3][13] - Most primary industry sectors saw declines, with the healthcare sector experiencing a substantial drop of nearly 8%, the largest among all sectors, while only the information technology sector saw a slight increase of 0.2% [3][13] - As of the end of this week, the 5-year PE (TTM) valuation percentile of the Hang Seng Composite Index rose to 72%, exceeding the 5-year average [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment indicates that economic activity data for May continued to weaken, with consumption performance exceeding expectations mainly due to shopping festival timing and subsidies, raising questions about sustainability [3][48] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting maintained the benchmark interest rate, aligning with expectations, but conveyed a hawkish tone emphasizing the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation [3][46] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The report suggests a favorable outlook for sectors that are relatively prosperous and benefit from policy support, including automotive, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][48] - It also highlights the importance of low-valuation state-owned enterprises that are stable in performance and stock price, as well as local Hong Kong banks, telecommunications, and utility dividend stocks that are relatively independent and benefit from the interest rate cut cycle [3][48] Group 4: Buyback Statistics - The buyback market showed improvement this week, with 55 companies participating, up from 53 the previous week, and total buyback amounts reaching 6.61 billion HKD, a significant increase from 3.96 billion HKD last week [3][27] - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) led the buybacks with 2.5 billion HKD, followed by Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) with 1.57 billion HKD, and AIA Group (1299.HK) with 1.15 billion HKD [3][27] Group 5: Southbound Capital Flow - The top net buying companies through the Southbound Stock Connect included China Construction Bank (0939.HK) with a net buy of 3.48 billion HKD, Meituan-W (3690.HK) with 2.49 billion HKD, and China Merchants Bank (3968.HK) with 2.23 billion HKD [3][34] - Conversely, the top net selling companies included Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) with a net sell of 4.81 billion HKD and Alibaba-W (9988.HK) with 4.38 billion HKD [3][35]