海外宏观周报（2025 年第 22 期）：中东乱局下的超级央行周-20250623

Core Insights - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve has maintained its current interest rate of 4.25%-4.50%, indicating a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [10][32] - The U.S. economy shows signs of resilience despite a slowdown, with a robust labor market and a slight adjustment in GDP growth forecasts [10][11] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, are contributing to rising inflationary pressures, prompting central banks to reassess their monetary policies [3][14] Major Asset Trends - U.S. Treasury yields have seen slight declines, with the 10-year yield at 4.38% and the 2-year yield at 3.90% [2] - The S&P 500 index has experienced a minor decrease of 0.15%, while the Nasdaq index increased by 0.21% [2] - Gold prices have dropped by 1.95%, while Brent crude oil prices have risen by 4.13% [2] Economic Data Summary - U.S. retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, with core retail sales also declining by 0.3% [18] - New housing starts in the U.S. were reported at 1.256 million units, below expectations of 1.357 million [18] - In the UK, inflation slightly decreased to 3.4%, while the Eurozone saw a rebound in construction output [24][26] Central Bank Actions - The Bank of England has kept its policy rate unchanged, but there are indications of potential rate cuts in August due to internal voting disagreements [11][12] - The Bank of Japan has also maintained its current policy stance, but is facing increasing inflationary pressures, leading to a planned reduction in bond purchases starting next year [13][28] Geopolitical Impact - The report notes that the escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to increased oil prices and shipping costs, raising concerns about a potential "second inflation" scenario [14] - The report emphasizes the need for central banks to reevaluate their inflation outlooks in light of these geopolitical developments [14]