中东局势或升级，黄金震荡偏多

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term outlook of fluctuating with a slight upward bias for precious metals [5][30] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the US involvement in the Middle East conflict bring more uncertainties to the subsequent war situation, which is the main event affecting precious metals recently [30] - Due to the continuous rise in crude oil prices, US inflation and inflation expectations may be under pressure again, and the Fed's interest rate cut faces more uncertainties [30] - Adopt a mid - term view of wide - range fluctuations with a slight upward bias, and pay attention to whether the contradictions in the Middle East region escalate and whether gold and silver show a differentiated market [30] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The main trading and focus in the market are the Middle East geopolitics, the US economic outlook, and the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm [10] - Previously, the expectation of interest rate cuts increased the short - term upward momentum of silver, leading to a differentiated market between gold and silver. Subsequently, the increase in Middle East geopolitical conflicts, the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the risk - aversion sentiment, and the economic downturn expectation drove up the price of gold, and the market of silver and gold diverged again [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - On June 21st, US President Trump claimed that Iran's key nuclear facilities had been "completely destroyed", but Iran stated that the Fordo nuclear facility was not severely damaged and the above - ground part could be repaired [2][13][21] - Fed Governor Waller said that he expected tariffs not to significantly push up inflation, and the Fed might cut interest rates as early as the July meeting [13] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached 248,000, the highest since the week of October 5, 2024. The US May PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1% [15][17] - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, believing that the US interest rate should be lowered by 250 basis points [15] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei emphasized that Iran would not accept any "imposed peace or war" and would not ignore any attacks on its territory [15] - The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4%, and raised the inflation expectation to 3% [16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - In April, US durable goods orders declined more than expected due to a sharp drop in commercial aircraft orders. The core capital goods orders decreased by 1.3% month - on - month, and the overall durable goods orders decreased by 6.3% month - on - month [17] - In April, US retail sales increased by only 0.1% month - on - month, and manufacturing output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month [17] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week reached a new high since October 2024. The May PPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the core PPI increased by 3% year - on - year [17] - In May, non - farm payrolls increased by 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2% for the third consecutive month [17] - The Fed has increased its expectation of economic downward pressure and inflation upward pressure [17] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and the possible increase in tariffs have led to an escalation of geopolitical conflicts and uncertainties in tariffs, which may interfere with the Fed's interest rate cut decision [21] - The risk - aversion sentiment has resurfaced, increasing the bullish factors for gold [21] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The final value of the US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 52.0, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI was 48.5, indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing expansion speed and increasing economic downward pressure [22] - Due to the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, European and American stock markets declined, and risk appetite decreased [22] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - Due to multiple factors such as positive signals from US trade negotiations, the release of positive momentum from China's holiday consumption, increased market confidence in the Chinese economy, and the weakening of the US dollar, the RMB has appreciated significantly [28] - After the May Day holiday, the RMB has a slight depreciation but still maintains an appreciation trend. The exchange rate will not be an important factor affecting precious metals [28] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Adopt a mid - term view of wide - range fluctuations with a slight upward bias, and pay attention to whether the contradictions in the Middle East region escalate and whether gold and silver show a differentiated market [30]