钢材期货周度报告：宏观情绪回暖，淡季需求承压-20250623

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices showed mixed trends, with the average national rebar price down 5 yuan/ton week-on-week. Due to the influence of high - temperature and rainy weather, downstream demand was sluggish, and price support was insufficient. Next week, the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, the inventory decline trend slows down, and there is some price support, but the market's willingness to hold up prices is insufficient [2][4]. - The current core risk in the market is the intensification of overseas geopolitical risk disturbances, which lead to increased fluctuations in crude oil prices and may cause greater fluctuations in industrial commodities. However, the overall fundamentals of the black series have not changed significantly. On one hand, with high production and high profits, the upside space is limited; on the other hand, with low inventory and low valuation, the downward momentum slows down. In July, it is necessary to observe whether demand can improve and pay attention to the Politburo meeting in terms of macro - policies [27]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, steel prices showed mixed trends, with the average national rebar price down 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. Affected by recent high - temperature and rainy weather, downstream demand was sluggish, and price support was insufficient. Next week, the pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, the inventory decline trend slows down, and there is some price support, but the market's willingness to hold up prices is insufficient [2][4]. 2. Macro and Industrial News - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. In May, the crude oil output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 18.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%; the daily output was 596,000 tons. From January to May, the output was 90.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. The raw coal output was 400 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%; the daily output was 13.01 million tons. From January to May, the output was 1.99 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.0%. In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%; steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [6]. - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 3.6234 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. Among them, residential investment was 2.7731 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.0%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.2502 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.35354 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 231.84 million square meters, a decrease of 22.8%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 170.89 million square meters, a decrease of 21.4%. The completed area was 183.85 million square meters, a decrease of 17.3%. Among them, the completed residential area was 133.37 million square meters, a decrease of 17.6% [7]. - The relevant national authorities stated that 162 billion yuan of the 300 - billion - yuan consumer goods trade - in support funds have been allocated, and the remaining funds will be allocated in an orderly manner. Relevant departments are guiding local governments to use the "national subsidy" funds smoothly and orderly to promote the policy to be more effective [7]. - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in June was announced: the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%, the same as last month; the 1 - year LPR was 3%, the same as last month [7]. - The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the interest rate unchanged since January. The Fed's dot - plot shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, and 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027 [7]. - According to Mysteel, mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market plan to reduce the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective at 0:00 on June 23, 2025. Some steel mills in the Xingtai area reduced the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, also effective at 0:00 on June 23, 2025 [8]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to a survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 97,400 tons, lower than last week's 99,600 tons. The weak demand for steel during the off - season is likely to continue, and the supply and demand will generally maintain a weak balance [10]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current core risk in the market is the intensification of overseas geopolitical risk disturbances, which lead to increased fluctuations in crude oil prices and may cause greater fluctuations in industrial commodities. However, the overall fundamentals of the black series have not changed significantly. On one hand, with high production and high profits, the upside space is limited; on the other hand, with low inventory and low valuation, the downward momentum slows down. In July, it is necessary to observe whether demand can improve and pay attention to the Politburo meeting in terms of macro - policies [27]. - The rebar main contract closed at 2992 on Friday, up 7 points on the day and 23 points from last Friday's closing price. The weekly settlement price was 2984, up 11 points. The latest position was 2.164 million lots, an increase of 28,000 lots from last Friday. This week, the funds were not very active, and both the long and short sides were hesitant, showing little change in position and volume. Currently, the daily line has been sideways for 12 trading days, and the price center of the weekly line has slightly moved up for two consecutive weeks, but the momentum is very limited. Next week, continue to pay attention to whether the 3000 - point mark can be effectively held, and there will be greater pressure near this position [27]. - Investment strategies: For single - side trading, focus on range operations; for inter - period arbitrage, mainly wait and see; for the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, mainly wait and see; for steel profits, mainly wait and see; for option strategies, adopt a wide - straddle consolidation strategy [2][27].