地缘主导原油短期走势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a "wait-and-see" strategy [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical factors dominate the short - term trend of crude oil. OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production, but the increase in May did not meet expectations. The decline in US drilling rigs indicates that US crude oil production may be difficult to sustain. Military conflicts have led to an expectation of supply disruptions, and if the conflicts ease, the geopolitical premium is expected to decline. Short - term focus should be on Iran's response to US air strikes and its diplomatic achievements [2][32] 3. Summary by Relevant Chapters Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil prices rose significantly. The SC2508 contract opened at 530, reached a high of 582, a low of 508, and closed at 566, with a weekly increase of 45 or 8.82% [3] Chapter 2: Analysis of Price Influencing Factors 2.1 OPEC - OPEC+ has planned to increase production for three consecutive months. In May, OPEC+ crude oil daily production averaged 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April. Saudi Arabia's production increased by 177,000 barrels/day to 9.18 million barrels/day, while Iran's decreased by 25,000 barrels/day to 3.3 million barrels/day, and Venezuela's decreased by 32,000 barrels/day to 896,000 barrels/day. Starting from July, OPEC+ will increase daily oil production by 411,000 barrels, continuing the increase in May and June. However, the production increase in May was lower than the planned rate, and the situation of production increase needs continuous attention [5] 2.2 Russia - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels/day). In April 2024, Russia's oil production increased by 12,000 barrels/day to 8.981 million barrels/day, still 17,000 barrels/day below the "OPEC+" agreement quota. Since April 2025, Russia has started to increase production according to the "OPEC+" plan. The latest Russian crude oil seaborne exports are 2.644 million barrels/day, a decrease of 887,000 barrels/day compared to the same period last year. In May 2025, Russia and Ukraine started negotiations, and the US has an ambiguous attitude towards the negotiations, while the EU has strengthened its support for Ukraine and threatened to further sanction Russia [7][8] 2.3 US - US crude oil production is 13.43 million barrels/day, with no change from the previous period. The number of active US crude oil rigs is 438, a decrease of 1 compared to the previous period. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that next year's US crude oil daily production will drop to about 13.37 million barrels, from about 13.42 million barrels this year [9] 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Increases - The IEA predicts that global oil production capacity will increase by more than 5 million barrels/day by 2030, reaching 114.7 million barrels/day, and global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels/day in 2025. OPEC states that the supply of non - OPEC+ countries will increase by about 800,000 barrels/day in 2025, lower than last month's forecast [12] 2.5 Inventory - OECD's crude oil and liquid commercial inventories as of April 2025 were 2.729 billion barrels, a decrease of 94.42 million barrels compared to the same period last year. US commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) as of the week of June 13 decreased by 11.473 million barrels to 421 million barrels, and API crude inventories decreased by 10.133 million barrels [16] 2.6 Consumption - OPEC's forecast of global oil demand growth remains basically unchanged, expecting an increase of 1.29 million barrels/day and 1.28 million barrels/day in the next two years respectively. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels/day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels/day. Refining margins are low, and refinery operating rates are at a low level. In general, demand is relatively weak [20][21][22] 2.7 Geopolitics: Iran and Geopolitical Conflicts - The logic of the impact of Iranian supply on oil prices includes trade sanctions, oil and gas production interruptions, and shipping channel safety. Since 2025, US sanctions on Iran have had little impact on its oil exports. After the Israeli air strike on Iran on June 13, Iran's average daily oil exports increased by 44%. The probability of Iran completely blocking the Strait of Hormuz is very low. Currently, the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran is intensifying, and the diplomatic situation is tense, with the overall situation remaining unresolved [29][30] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - OPEC+ maintains its stance on increasing production, but the increase in May did not meet expectations. The decline in US drilling rigs indicates that US crude oil production may be difficult to sustain. Military conflicts have led to an expectation of supply disruptions, and if the conflicts ease, the geopolitical premium is expected to decline. Short - term focus should be on Iran's response to US air strikes and its diplomatic achievements [32]